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Delay in the Effect of Restricting Community Mobility on the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States

22 Pages Posted: 13 May 2021

See all articles by Shan He

Shan He

Harvard University - Department of Biostatistics

Jooyoung Lee

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology

Benjamin Langworthy

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology

Junyi Xin

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology

Peter James

Harvard Pilgrim Health Care; Harvard University - Department of Environmental Health

Yang Yang

University of Florida - Department of Biostatistics

Molin Wang

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology; Harvard University - Department of Biostatistics

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Abstract

Background: Ever since the introduction of COVID-19 into the US, governments from the local to the federal levels have implemented combinations of responses to COVID-19. It is unclear how changes in human mobility across the country in response to intervention policies have shaped the transmission dynamic of COVID-19.

Methods: Coupling a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model with the Google mobility data, we aimed to quantify the impact of human movement on COVID-19 incidence rate at the county level while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We used both single-lag and distributed lag models to assess how movement today can affect incidence rates in the following weeks.

Findings: On average, an increase in travel from home to other places was associated with an increase in reported COVID-19 incidence rate about 5 to 7 weeks later. A 10% increase in workplace movement 7 weeks ago was associated with 5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1-9%] increase in COVID-19 incidence rate, 8% [95% CI:4-12%] for retail and recreation stores, 5% [95% CI:1-9%] for transits, and 5% [95% CI:29%] for grocery and pharmacies in the single-lag model analysis. No significant impact on incidence was found for human movement in parks. A 10% increase in the total duration at residential places was associated with a 13% (95% CI:6-20%) reduction in incidence rate 7 weeks after.

Interpretation: Human movement activities substantially affected COVID-19 incidence rates at local levels but with delays varying from state to state. Policymakers should anticipate such a delay when planning intervention strategies restricting human movement.

Funding Information: YY was supported by grant R56 AI148284 from the US National Institutes of Health. PJ was supported by grant R01 HL150119 from the US National Institutes of Health.

Declaration of Interests: The Authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: The study only involves publicly accessible deidentified and aggregated data and is therefore exempt from IRB approval.

Suggested Citation

He, Shan and Lee, Jooyoung and Langworthy, Benjamin and Xin, Junyi and James, Peter and Yang, Yang and Wang, Molin, Delay in the Effect of Restricting Community Mobility on the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3845372 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3845372

Shan He

Harvard University - Department of Biostatistics

Boston, MA
United States

Jooyoung Lee

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology

655 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
United States

Benjamin Langworthy

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology ( email )

655 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
United States

Junyi Xin

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology

655 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
United States

Peter James

Harvard Pilgrim Health Care ( email )

93 Worcester Street
Wellesley, 02481
United States

Harvard University - Department of Environmental Health ( email )

Yang Yang

University of Florida - Department of Biostatistics ( email )

Gainesville, FL
United States

Molin Wang (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology ( email )

655 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
United States

Harvard University - Department of Biostatistics

Boston, MA
United States