Abstract
This study analyzes the possibility that COVID-19 will increase the risk of a military conflict between the United States and People’s Republic of China. The mechanism is that COVID-19 weakens American economic output, which undermines the U.S. capability to project force. This enables China’s efforts to revise the status quo. Although a rapid collapse of American power due to COVID-19 would theoretically increase the likelihood of an armed conflict, this scenario is unlikely due to the centrality of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system. I therefore argue that COVID-19 increases the short term risk of military crises, particularly in the South China Sea and Persian Gulf, but does not significantly increase the likelihood of a power transition and full scale war. However, the long term depends on the ability of the U.S. to respond adequately to the COVID-19 crisis.
References
Bapat, N. A. 2019. Monsters to Destroy: Understanding the War on Terror. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/oso/9780190061456.001.0001Search in Google Scholar
Bapat, N. A., and S. Zeigler. 2016. “Terrorism, Dynamic Commitment Problems, and Military Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 60 (2): 337–51, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12211.Search in Google Scholar
Bas, M. A., and A. Coe. 2016. “A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War.” International Organization 70 (4): 655–85, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818316000230.Search in Google Scholar
Coe, A. J. 2018. “Containing Rogues: A Theory of Asymmetric Arming.” Journal of Politics 80 (4): 1197–210, https://doi.org/10.1086/698845.Search in Google Scholar
Colgan, J. 2013. Petro-Aggression. When Oil Causes War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139342476Search in Google Scholar
Drezner, D. W. 2015. “Targeted Sanctions in a World of Global Finance.” International Interactions 41 (4): 755–64, https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2015.1041297.Search in Google Scholar
Fearon, J. D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49 (3): 379–414, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300033324.Search in Google Scholar
Fearon, J. D. 1996. “Bargaining over Objects that Influence Future Power.” Manuscript. University of Chicago.Search in Google Scholar
Gilpin, R. 1987. The Political Economy of International Relations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9781400882779Search in Google Scholar
Ghosn, F., G. Palmer, and S. A. Bremer. 2004. “The MID3 Data Set 1993—2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2): 133–54, https://doi.org/10.1080/07388940490463861.Search in Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. J., and A. K. Charles. 1990. “Socialization and Hegemonic Power.” International Organization 44 (3): 283–315, https://doi.org/10.1017/s002081830003530x.Search in Google Scholar
Keohane, R. 1984. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Kindleberger, C. P. 1973. The World in Depression 1929–1939. California: University of California.Search in Google Scholar
Lake, D. A. 1999. Entangling Relations: American Foreign Policy in its Century. Princeton: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9780691216119Search in Google Scholar
Leventoğlu, B., and B. Slantchev. 2007. “The Armed Peace: A Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of War.” American Journal of Political Science 51 (4): 755–71.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00279.xSearch in Google Scholar
Liao, S., and D. McDowell. 2016. “No Reservations: International Order and Demand for the Renminbi as a Reserve Currency.” International Studies Quarterly 60 (2): 272–93, https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqv020.Search in Google Scholar
Norrlof, C., P. Paul, J. C. Benjamin, C. Sabreena, K. Aashna, D. McDowell, W. Hongying, W. K. Winecoff. May 2020. “Global Monetary Order and the Liberal Order Debate.” International Studies Perspectives 21 (2): 109–53, https://doi.org/10.1093/isp/ekaa001.Search in Google Scholar
Oatley, T. 2015. A Political Economy of American Hegemony: Buildups, Booms, and Busts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781316109199Search in Google Scholar
Oatley, T., W. K. Winecoff, A. Pennock, and S. B. Danzman. 2013. “The Political Economy of Global Finance.” Perspectives on Politics 11 (1): 133–53, https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592712003593.Search in Google Scholar
Organski, A. F. K., and J. Kugler. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago.10.7208/chicago/9780226351841.001.0001Search in Google Scholar
Poast, P. 2015. “Central Banks at War.” International Organization 69 (1): 63–95, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818314000265.Search in Google Scholar
Powell, R. 2004. “The Inefficient Use of Power: Costly Conflict with Complete Information.” American Political Science Review 98 (2): 231–41, https://doi.org/10.1017/s000305540400111x.Search in Google Scholar
Powell, R. 2006. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60 (1): 169–203.10.1017/S0020818306060061Search in Google Scholar
Slantchev, B. 2005. “Military Coercion in Interstate Crises.” American Political Science Review 99 (4): 533–47, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055405051865.Search in Google Scholar
Tarar, A. 2013. “Military Mobilization and Commitment Problems.” International Interactions 39 (3): 343–66, https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2013.782304.Search in Google Scholar
Wagner, R. H. 2007. War and the State. Michigan: University of Michigan Press.10.3998/mpub.224944Search in Google Scholar
© 2020 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston