Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jun 6, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Jun 6, 2020 - Jun 15, 2020
Date Accepted: Jul 1, 2020
Date Submitted to PubMed: Jul 1, 2020
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Prediction of the transition from sub-exponential to the exponential transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and epidemic nowcasting for metro-zones: Experiences from Chennai-Metro-Merge, India
ABSTRACT
Background:
Several countries adopted lockdown to slowdown the exponential transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Disease transmission models and the epidemic forecasts at national level steer the policy to implement appropriate intervention strategies and budgeting. However, it is critical to design a data-driven reliable model for nowcasting for the small population, in particular metro cities.
Objective:
The objective of this work is to analyze the transition of the epidemic from sub-exponential to exponential transmission in Chennai metro-zone and to analyze the probability of SARS-CoV-2 secondary infections while availing the public transport systems in the city.
Methods:
A single geographical zone “Chennai-Metro-Merge” was constructed by combing Chennai district with three bordering districts. Sub-exponential and exponential models were developed to analyze and predict the progression of COVID-19 epidemic. Probabilistic models were applied to assess the probability of secondary infections while availing the public transport after the release of the lockdown.
Results:
The model predicted that transition from sub-exponential to exponential transmission occurs around eighth week after the reporting a cluster of cases. The probability of the secondary infections with a single index case in an enclosure of the city bus and the sub-urban train general coach and ladies coach was found to be 0.192, 0.074 and 0.114 respectively.
Conclusions:
Nowcasting at the early stage of the epidemic predicts the probable time point of the exponential transmission and alerts the public health system. After the lockdown release, public transports will be the major sources of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in metro cities and appropriate strategies based on nowcasting are highly desirable.
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