JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

The Great Covid Shutdown worked when it was well implemented. Some countries completely eliminated SARS-CoV-2 while others flattened the curve. The US is more complicated due to varying social isolation policies which begs the question, when can we reopen? Reopening should be predicated on a sustained decline in Covid. Existing models of Covid-19 contagion rely on parameters such as R0 and use intensive data collection efforts, however these models use static statistical methods that do not capture all of the relevant dynamics such as varying specificity and sensitivity of diagnostic testing or asymptotic individuals unwittingly carrying the novel corona virus who are never tested. Existing Covid models use data that are subject to significant measurement error and other contaminants. Moreover, timely information is needed to improve statistical methods by extracting the information that is available from various datasets posted on websites.

Objective:

This study applies state-of-the-art statistical modeling applied to existing data on the internet to extract the best available estimates of the state-level dynamics of Covid-19 infection in the U.S.

Methods:

Dynamic panel data (DPD) models are estimated with the Arellano-Bond estimator utilizing the Generalized Method of Methods. This statistical technique allows for control of a variety of deficiencies in the existing dataset. Tests of the validity of the model and statistical technique are applied.

Results:

The results indicate 1) that the statistical approach is valid, including for determining recent changes in the pattern of infection, and 2) during the May 16-25 period the evolution of the pandemic changed with less inter-temporal persistence of the infection rate. This change represents a decline in the contagion model R value for that period, and is consistent with a ‘flattening of the curve’ but not with an imminent end to the pandemic.

Conclusions:

Opening America comes with two certainties: 1)we will be Covid-free only when there is an effective vaccine; and 2)the “social” end is going to occur before the “medical” end of the pandemic, therefore, we need improved surveillance techniques to inform our leaders how to open sections of America more safely. DPD models can support opening America in combination with the extraction of Covid data from existing websites. Clinical Trial: NA