Dual attention-based sequential auto-encoder for Covid-19 outbreak forecasting: A case study in Vietnam

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117514Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Time series Covid-19 prediction problem, a case study in Vietnam.

  • A dual attention mechanism with RNN-based auto-encoding for handling chaotic time series prediction task.

  • Extensive experiments with realistic Covid-19 data in Vietnam.

  • Datasets and implementation source code are available for future studies.

Abstract

For preventing the outbreaks of Covid-19 infection in different countries, many organizations and governments have extensively studied and applied different kinds of quarantine isolation policies, medical treatments as well as organized massive/fast vaccination strategy for over-18 citizens. There are several valuable lessons have been achieved in different countries this Covid-19 battle. These studies have presented the usefulness of prompt actions in testing, isolating confirmed infectious cases from community as well as social resource planning/optimization through data-driven anticipation. In recent times, many studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of short/long-term forecasting in number of new Covid-19 cases in forms of time-series data. These predictions have directly supported to effectively optimize the available healthcare resources as well as imposing suitable policies for slowing down the Covid-19 spreads, especially in high-populated cities/regions/nations. There are several progresses of deep neural architectures, such as recurrent neural network (RNN) have demonstrated significant improvements in analyzing and learning the time-series datasets for conducting better predictions. However, most of recent RNN-based techniques are considered as unable to handle chaotic/non-smooth sequential datasets. The consecutive disturbances and lagged observations from chaotic time-series dataset like as routine Covid-19 confirmed cases have led to the low performance in temporal feature learning process through recent RNN-based models. To meet this challenge, in this paper, we proposed a novel dual attention-based sequential auto-encoding architecture, called as: DAttAE. Our proposed model supports to effectively learn and predict the new Covid-19 cases in forms of chaotic and non-smooth time series dataset. Specifically, the integration between dual self-attention mechanism in a given Bi-LSTM based auto-encoder in our proposed model supports to directly focus the model on a specific time-range sequence in order to achieve better prediction. We evaluated the performance of our proposed DAttAE model by comparing with multiple traditional and state-of-the-art deep learning-based techniques for time-series prediction task upon different real-world datasets. Experimental outputs demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed attention-based deep neural approach in comparing with state-of-the-art RNN-based architectures for time series based Covid-19 outbreak prediction task.

Keywords

Deep learning
Auto-encoding
Bi-LSTM
Attention
Covid-19

Cited by (0)

1

0000-0002-3433-1487.

2

0000-0002-9335-9930.

3

0000-0002-9246-4587.

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