The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2022-030/V

25 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2022

See all articles by Henri Bussink

Henri Bussink

University of Amsterdam - SEO Economic Research

Tobias Vervliet

De Nederlandsche Bank

Bas ter Weel

University of Amsterdam - SEO Economic Research; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Date Written: April 2022

Abstract

This research documents employment opportunities of labour-market entrants during the COVID-19 crisis in the Netherlands. Two recent cohorts of graduates are studied and compared to two pre-COVID-19 cohorts: the 2019 cohort was unexpectedly hit by the COVID-19 crisis about six months after entering the labour market and the 2020 cohort graduated and entered the labour market in the midst of a lockdown. Our estimation results suggest short-term effects of lockdowns on employment probabilities, specifically for relatively lower educated labour-market entrants. The effects appear to be relatively small in size and seem to fade when the lockdown measures are eased. Men seem to have suffered more than women and some sectors are hit harder than others, which could result in short-run mismatches. Overall the effects appear to be less severe than during an economic recession, which is most likely due to the tight labour market and the strong measures taken by the government to mitigate the labour-market impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Keywords: COVID-19 crisis, employment, young workers

JEL Classification: I24, J10, J23

Suggested Citation

Bussink, Henri and Vervliet, Tobias and ter Weel, Bas, The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands (April 2022). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2022-030/V, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4092510 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4092510

Henri Bussink (Contact Author)

University of Amsterdam - SEO Economic Research ( email )

Roetersstraat 29
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

Tobias Vervliet

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 80510
2508 GM The Hague, 2585 JR
Netherlands

Bas Ter Weel

University of Amsterdam - SEO Economic Research ( email )

Roetersstraat 29
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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