COVID-19 outbreak reproduction number estimations and forecasting in Marche, Italy

Highlights

• The knowledge of essential insights into Marche, Italy in particular to virus transmission dynamics.

• Geographical characteristics, and the imposing of mitigation measures to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak.

• The outbreak SI distribution Marche region is estimated R0 is 1.852 (0.6–2.3) with 95% CI.

• The prediction of cumulative incidences of four-week projection with 95% CI was 12 (7–), 31 (18–), 63 (21–), and 121 (26–) respectively.

Abstract

Background

COVID-19 disease is becoming a global pandemic and more than 200 countries were affected because of this disease. Italy is one of the countries is largely suffered with this virus outbreak, and about 180,000 cases (as of 20 April 2020) were registered which explains the large transmissibility and reproduction case numbers.

Objective

In this study, we considered the Marche region of Italy to compute different daily transmission rates (R_t) including five provinces in it. We also present forecasting of daily and cumulative incidences associated after the next thirty days. The Marche region is the 8th in terms of number of people infected in Italy and the first in terms of diffusion of the infection among the 4 regions of the center of Italy.

Methods

Epidemic statistics were extracted from the national Italian Health Ministry website. We considered outbreak information where the first case registered in Marche with onset symptoms (26 February 2020) to the present date (20 April 2020). Adoption of incidence and projections with R statistics was done.

Results

The median values of R_t for the five provinces of Pesaro and Urbano, Ancona, Fermo, Ascoli Piceno, and Macerata, was 2.492 (1.1–4.5), 2.162 (1.0–4.0), 1.512 (0.75–2.75), 1.141 (1.0–1.6), and 1.792 (1.0–3.5) with 95% of CI achieved. The projections at end of 30th day of the cumulative incidences 323 (95% CI), and daily incidences 45 (95% CI) could be possible.

Conclusions

This study highlights the knowledge of essential insights into the Marche region in particular to virus transmission dynamics, geographical characteristics of positive incidences, and the necessity of implementing mitigation procedures to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak.