Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-wq2xx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T07:42:03.095Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Shadow Banking in a Crisis: Evidence from Fintech During COVID-19

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 July 2021

Zhengyang Bao
Affiliation:
Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Wang Yanan Institute of Economics Studies, Xiamen University and MOE Key Laboratory of Econometrics, Xiamen Universityzhengyangbao@gmail.com
Difang Huang*
Affiliation:
Monash University Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
*
difang.huang@monash.edu (corresponding author)

Abstract

We analyze lending by traditional as well as fintech lenders during COVID-19. Comparing samples of fintech and bank loan records across the outbreak, we find that fintech companies are more likely to expand credit access to new and financially constrained borrowers after the start of the pandemic. However, this increased credit provision may not be sustainable; the delinquency rate of fintech loans triples after the outbreak, but there is no significant change in the delinquency of bank loans. Borrowers holding both loan types prioritize the payment of bank loans. These results shed light on the benefits provided by shadow banking in a crisis and hint at the potential fragility of such institutions when delinquency rates spike.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We are grateful to the anonymous referee, Franklin Allen, Robert Bartlett, Stephen Brown, Chen Chen, Josea Cheruiyot, Jennifer Conrad, Zhi Da, Phil Dybvig, Mark Grinblatt, Jarrad Harford (the editor), Kai Li, Nan Li, Ying Liang, Jun Liu, Zhuozhen Peng, Philip Strahan, Kumar Venkataraman, Jeroen Verbouw, Xinjie Wang, Yongxiang Wang, Hongjun Yan, Bohui Zhang, and Jinfan Zhang, and the audiences at the French Finance Association (AFFI), JFQA COVID-19 Symposium, Placekey Community Virtual Seminar, Shanghai International Studies University, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Xiamen University, and University of Science and Technology in China for their constructive comments. We acknowledge helpful conversations with Hanqiang Guo (China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission) and Jiansan Li (People’s Bank of China) discussing regulations on the Chinese fintech industry. We thank Shona Bates and Julie Steiff for their editorial help. Bao is also affiliated with the Department of Finance, MOE Key Lab of Econometrics, and Fujian Key Lab of Statistics at Xiamen University. Huang is grateful to the faculty and staff at the University of Science and Technology in China and Xiamen University for their hospitality during his visit. Bao acknowledges financial support from Monash Business School, Basic Scientific Center Project (71988101) of the National Science Foundation of China, the 111 Project (B13028), and National Social Science Foundation of China (19ZDA060). Huang acknowledges financial support from the Australian Government Research Training Program and the Cochrane-Schofield Charitable Fund. All errors are our own.

References

Abadie, A., and Imbens, G. W.. “Matching on the Estimated Propensity Score.” Econometrica, 84 (2016), 781807.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, D., and Johnson, S.. “Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth.” Journal of Political Economy, 115 (2007), 925985.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.; Qian, W.; Ren, Y.; Tsai, H.-T.; and Yeung, B. Y.. “The Real Impact of Fintech: Evidence from Mobile Payment Technology.” Available at https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3556340 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.; Qian, W.; Seru, A.; and Zhang, J.. “Disguised Corruption: Evidence from Consumer Credit in China.” Journal of Financial Economics, 137 (2020), 430450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ambrus, A.; Field, E.; and Gonzalez, R.. “Loss in the Time of Cholera: Long-Run Impact of a Disease Epidemic on the Urban Landscape.” American Economic Review, 110 (2020), 475525.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, R. M.; Heesterbeek, H.; Klinkenberg, D.; and Hollingsworth, T. D.. “How Will Country-Based Mitigation Measures Influence the Course of the COVID-19 Epidemic?The Lancet, 395 (2020), 931934.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Atkeson, A.On Using SIR Models to Model Disease Scenarios for COVID-19.” Quarterly Review, 41 (2020), 135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, S. R.; Farrokhnia, R. A.; Meyer, S.; Pagel, M.; and Yannelis, C.. “How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic.” The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10 (2020), 834862.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bao, Z., and Huang, D.. “How Effective Is Social Distancing?” Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3680321 (2020).Google Scholar
Berger, A. N.; Espinosa-Vega, M. A.; Frame, W. S.; and Miller, N. H.. “Why Do Borrowers Pledge Collateral? New Empirical Evidence on the Role of Asymmetric Information.” Journal of Financial Intermediation, 20 (2011), 5570.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, A. N.; Frame, W. S.; and Ioannidou, V. P.. “Tests of Ex Ante Versus Ex Post Theories of Collateral Using Private and Public Information.” Journal of Financial Economics, 100 (2011), 8597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bester, H.Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information.” American Economic Review, 75 (1985), 850855.Google Scholar
Bleakley, H.Disease and Development: Evidence from Hookworm Eradication in the American South.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122 (2007), 73117.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bloom, D. E., and Mahal, A. S.. “Does the AIDS Epidemic Threaten Economic Growth?Journal of Econometrics, 77 (1997), 105124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braggion, F.; Manconi, A.; and Zhu, H.. “Can Technology Undermine Macroprudential Regulation? Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Credit in China.” Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=3118316 (2018).Google Scholar
Brunnermeier, M. K.; Sockin, M.; and Xiong, W.. “China’s Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets.” American Economic Review, 107 (2017), 608613.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buchak, G.; Matvos, G.; Piskorski, T.; and Seru, A.. “Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks.” Journal of Financial Economics, 130 (2018), 453483.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, A. W.; Cornaggia, J.; and Gurun, U. G.. “Do Local Capital Market Conditions Affect Consumers’ Borrowing Decisions?Management Science, 63 (2017), 41754187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cason, T. N.; Gangadharan, L.; and Maitra, P.. “Moral Hazard and Peer Monitoring in a Laboratory Microfinance Experiment.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 82 (2012), 192209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cerqueiro, G.; Ongena, S.; and Roszbach, K.. “Collateralization, Bank Loan Rates and Monitoring.” Journal of Finance, 71 (2016), 12951322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chava, S.; Paradkar, N.; and Zhang, Y., “Winners and Losers of Marketplace Lending: Evidence from Borrower Credit Dynamics.” Available at www.fdic.gov/analysis/cfr/bank-research-conference/annual-18th/24-paradkar.pdf (2017).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, H.; Qian, W.; and Wen, Q.. “The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High Frequency Transaction Data.” Available at https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3568574 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Z.; Li, P.; Liao, L.; and Wang, Z.. “Assessing and Addressing the Coronavirus-Induced Economic Crisis: Evidence from 1.5 Billion Business Transactions in China.” Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3661014 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clay, J. M., and Parker, M. O.. “Alcohol Use and Misuse During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Potential Public Health Crisis?The Lancet Public Health, 5 (2020), e259.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cutler, D.How Will COVID-19 Affect the Health Care Economy?JAMA, 323 (2020), 22372238.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
de Roure, C.; Pelizzon, L.; and Thakor, A. V., “P2P Lenders Versus Banks: Cream Skimming or Bottom Fishing?” Available at https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3174632 (2019).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Maggio, M., and Yao, V.. “Fintech Borrowers: Lax Screening or Cream-Skimming?” Review of Financial Studies (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dobbie, W.; Goldsmith-Pinkham, P.; Mahoney, N.; and Song, J.. “Bad Credit, No Problem? Credit and Labor Market Consequences of Bad Credit Reports.” Journal of Finance, 75 (2020), 23772419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Du, N.; Li, L.; Lu, T.; and Lu, X.. “Prosocial Compliance in P2P Lending: A Natural Field Experiment.” Management Science, 66 (2020), 315333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenbaum, M. S.; Rebelo, S.; and Trabandt, M.. “The Macroeconomics of Epidemics.” NBER Working Paper No. 26882 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fan, V. Y.; Jamison, D. T.; and Summers, L. H.. “Pandemic Risk: How Large Are the Expected Losses?Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 96 (2018), 129134.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fang, H.; Wang, L.; and Yang, Y.. “Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China.” Journal of Public Economics, 191 (2020), 104272.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fisman, R.; Paravisini, D.; and Vig, V.. “Cultural Proximity and Loan Outcomes.” American Economic Review, 107 (2017), 457492.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortson, J. G.Mortality Risk and Human Capital Investment: The Impact of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 93 (2011), 115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraser, D.; Rekkas, M.; and Wong, A.. “Highly Accurate Likelihood Analysis for the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Problem.” Journal of Econometrics, 127 (2005), 1733.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fuster, A.; Plosser, M. C.; Schnabl, P.; and Vickery, J. I.. “The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending.” Review of Financial Studies, 32 (2019), 18541899.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glaeser, E. L., and Gyourko, J.. “Urban Decline and Durable Housing.” Journal of Political Economy, 113 (2005), 345375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guerrieri, V.; Hartley, D.; and Hurst, E.. “Endogenous Gentrification and Housing Price Dynamics.” Journal of Public Economics, 100 (2013), 4560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hachem, K. C., and Song, Z. M.. “Liquidity Rules and Credit Booms.” NBER Working Paper No. 21880 (2016).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, J.Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies.” Political Analysis, 20 (2012), 2546.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hertzberg, A.; Liberman, A.; and Paravisini, D.. “Screening on Loan Terms: Evidence from Maturity Choice in Consumer Credit.” Review of Financial Studies, 31 (2018), 35323567.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hertzberg, A.; Liberti, J. M.; and Paravisini, D.. “Information and Incentives Inside the Firm: Evidence from Loan Officer Rotation.” Journal of Finance, 65 (2010), 795828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, D., and Bao, Z.. “Gender Differences in Reaction to Enforcement Mechanisms: A Large-Scale Natural Field Experiment.” Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3641282 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyer, R.; Khwaja, A. I.; Luttmer, E. F. P.; and Shue, K.. “Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers.” Management Science, 62 (2016), 15541577.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jiang, J.; Liao, L.; Lu, X.; Wang, Z.; and Xiang, H.. “Deciphering Big Data in Consumer Credit Evaluation.” Journal of Empirical Finance, 62 (2021), 2845.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jiménez, G.; Ongena, S.; Peydró, J. L.; and Saurina, J.. “Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty Three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk Taking?Econometrica, 82 (2014), 463505.Google Scholar
Keys, B. J., and Wang, J.. “Minimum Payments and Debt Paydown in Consumer Credit Cards.” Journal of Financial Economics, 131 (2019), 528548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liao, L.; Wang, Z.; Xiang, J.; Yan, H.; and Yang, J.. “User Interface and Firsthand Experience in Retail Investing.” Review of Financial Studies, 34 (2021), 44864523.Google Scholar
Liao, L.; Wang, Z.; Yan, H.; Yang, J.; and Zhou, C.. “Angry Borrowers: Negative Reciprocity in a Financial Market.” Available at https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3415808 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, S., and Roberts, J.. “AIDS and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach.” Journal of Development Economics, 80 (2006), 228250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rajan, U.; Seru, A.; and Vig, V.. “The Failure of Models That Predict Failure: Distance, Incentives, and Defaults.” Journal of Financial Economics, 115 (2015), 237260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Song, Z. M., and Xiong, W.. “Risks in China’s Financial System.” Annual Review of Financial Economics, 10 (2018), 261286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tang, H.Peer-to-Peer Lenders Versus Banks: Substitutes or Complements?Review of Financial Studies, 32 (2019), 19001938.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vallée, B., and Zeng, Y.. “Marketplace Lending: A New Banking Paradigm?Review of Financial Studies, 32 (2019), 19391982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, A.The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120 (2005), 423466.Google Scholar
Zellner, A.An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57 (1962), 348368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zellner, A., and Ando, T.. “A Direct Monte Carlo Approach for Bayesian Analysis of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model.” Journal of Econometrics, 159 (2010), 3345.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Bao and Huang supplementary material

Bao and Huang supplementary material

Download Bao and Huang supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 141.9 KB