Covid-19: UK deaths from all causes 3.1% above average during the pandemic

The UK’s all cause mortality was 3.1% above average during the covid-19 pandemic compared with the previous five years, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).1

The ONS report compared relative cumulative excess mortality between the week ending 3 January 2020 and the week ending 1 July 2022 with the average of 2015 to 2019. Using this measure allows robust comparisons to be made between countries. It also considers the indirect impact of the pandemic such as deaths from other causes that might be related to delayed access to healthcare.

The UK sits midtable, at 16th, when compared with 33 European countries for highest relative cumulative excess mortality. It is comparable with Italy (3.5%) but higher than Spain (1.8%) and France (1.3%).

Highest excess mortality was seen in Bulgaria (18.2% above average), followed by Poland (13.3% above average) and Romania (12.2%). Some countries, however, particularly in Scandinavia, had all cause mortality below average. Norway had the lowest relative cumulative excess mortality at 4.1% below average, followed by Sweden (4.0% below average) and Iceland (3.9% below average).

Most of the European countries compared had higher relative cumulative excess mortality in those aged 65 years and over compared with those aged under 65 years. The UK had the fifth highest excess mortality in those aged under 65 years (8.3% above average). In those aged 65 and over in the UK, cumulative excess mortality was the 19th highest.

The latest data show that 19 of the 33 countries had a decrease in their relative cumulative excess mortality since the previous release which went up to the week ending 18 June 2021.

A separate report, published jointly with the Department of Health and Social Care, concludes that international comparisons of mortality during the pandemic are complex and need to be interpreted carefully.2

It says that pre-existing conditions are a driver of covid-19 mortality, in particular cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, as well as risk factors of obesity and smoking.

Internationally, a significant proportion of the total deaths from covid-19 have been among elderly populations in care homes and comparison of data between countries is difficult because of differences in recording practices and populations’ structures.

Multiple pre-existing factors, such as socioeconomic differences, climate, and ethnicity, as well as differing pandemic responses, also contributed to differences in excess mortality across countries. Disentangling all these factors is complex and more work is needed, the report says

A third report, published by the Government Office for Science and the ONS, compares the different comparisons of excess mortality produced by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Health Organization, the European Statistical Office, and various data journals.3

It concludes that across the different measures, most countries remained at a similar ranking. The UK placed around the middle of the rankings, regardless of which excess mortality measure was used.