Elsevier

Annals of Epidemiology

Volume 53, January 2021, Pages 103-105
Annals of Epidemiology

Brief communication
Estimation of COVID-19 basic reproduction ratio in a large urban jail in the United States

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.09.002Get rights and content

Abstract

Purpose

To estimate the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2 inside a correctional facility early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We developed a dynamic transmission model for a large, urban jail in the United States. We used the next generation method to determine the basic reproduction ratio We included anonymized data of incarcerated individuals and correctional staff with confirmed COVID-19 infections in our estimation of the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2.

Results

The estimated is 8.44 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 5.00-13.13) for the entire jail.

Conclusions

The high of SARS-CoV-2 in a large urban jail highlights the importance of including correctional facilities in public health strategies for COVID-19. In the absence of more aggressive mitigation strategies, correctional facilities will continue to contribute to community infections.

Keywords

COVID-19
Basic reproduction number
Jail
Public health
Disease outbreaks

Cited by (0)

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Authors contributed equally to the production of this manuscript.

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