The Grocery Trolley Race in Times of Covid-19. Evidence from Italy

50 Pages Posted: 23 Jul 2021

Date Written: June 25, 2021

Abstract

We study sales dynamics of grocery chain stores during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemics in Italy. We document a sustained growth in revenues for storable products, such as food staples and household supplies, arising right before restrictions to mobility were introduced, and protracted throughout the whole lockdown period. We further look into the revenue surge, by disentangling the role of different types of stores. We find that the increase has been driven by the dynamics of smaller outlets, located in urban areas, closer to the city center, while hypermarkets faced a drop during the lockdown period, plausibly related to their more peripheral position. We also exploit both the remarkable granularity of scanner data, and the staggered implementation of restrictions across Italian regions to causally identify the short-term effects of mobility constraints on outlets' sales. According to our estimates, large grocery stores in areas subject to lockdown measures earned revenues around 10 percent lower than their control group's.

Keywords: Covid-19, grocery retail trade, consumption hoarding, mobility restrictions, contagion risk

JEL Classification: D12, D18, I30

Suggested Citation

Ciapanna, Emanuela and Rovigatti, Gabriele, The Grocery Trolley Race in Times of Covid-19. Evidence from Italy (June 25, 2021). Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione (Working Paper) No. 1341, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3891599 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3891599

Emanuela Ciapanna (Contact Author)

Bank of Italy ( email )

Research Department
Via Nazionale 91
Roma, 00184
Italy
00390647922188 (Phone)

Gabriele Rovigatti

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

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