The Case Number Changes in Adult Heart Transplantation and Waitlist Addition Due to COVID-19

Purpose

To understand the long term effect of COVID-19 on 1) heart transplant waitlist trends and on 2) heart transplant case numbers in the United States.

Methods

The number of new adult heart transplant waitlist additions and transplant procedures were obtained from the UNOS database. Our time frame includes the 52 weeks between September 3, 2019 and September 4, 2020. Temporal changes in waitlist additions and heart transplants were analyzed using interrupted time series analyses with two transition periods. The first transition from the pre-COVID to the post-COVID era was determined as the week of March 11, 2020, when the first state imposed stay-at-home orders. The second transition period was determined as the first state re-opening during the week of April 22, 2020.

Results

Weekly waitlist additions were decreasing at -0.19 additions per week (95% CI: -0.35 to -0.03, p=0.018) prior to the COVID-19 era, defined as before the week of March 11, 2020, with a significant decrease in weekly waitlist additions of -2.09 (95% CI: -2.44 to -1.73, p< 0.001) during the post-COVID-19 era and prior to the first state re-opening the week of April 22, 2020 (Figure A). Weekly waitlist additions increased at 2.16 additions per week (95% CI: 1.81 to 2.51, p<0.001) following the first state announcing re-opening the week of April 22, 2020.

Weekly transplants were relatively unstable, although decreasing at -0.003 transplants per week (95% CI: -0.279 to 0.273, p=0.984) in the pre-COVID era, and were trending downward at -0.18 transplants per week (95% CI: -0.3702 to 0.0036, p=0.054) thereafter (Figure B). The number of transplants rebounded and increased significantly at 0.49 transplants per week (95% CI: 0.26 to 0.72, p<0.001) after April 22, 2020.

Conclusion

The number of heart transplants and waitlist additions decreased significantly due to COVID-19 and rebounded following the first US state reopening the week of April 22, 2020. Waitlist additions continue to rise past levels observed during the pre-COVID era.