Short-term Forecasting of Cumulative Confirmed Covid-19 Cases Pandemic in Somalia

Dahir Abdi Ali; Muhammad Sani

doi:10.35877/454RI.asci142

Dahir Abdi Ali Department of Statistics and Planning, Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia (SO)
Muhammad Sani Department of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University Dutsin-ma, Nigeria (NG)

https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.asci142

Keywords: COVID-19, Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Holt’s linear trend, Somalia

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Abstract

Somalia has recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case and first death case on March 16, and April 08, 2020, respectively. Since its arrival, it had infected 2,603 people and took the lives of 88 people while 577 patients were recovered as of 14 June, 2020. To fight this pandemic, the government requires to make the necessary plans accordingly. To plan effectively, the government needs to answer this question: what will be the effect of Covid-19 cases in the country? To answer this question accurately and objectively, forecasting the spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases will be vital. To this regard, this paper provides real times forecasts of Covid-19 cases employing Holt's linear trend model without seasonality. Provided that the data employed is accurate and the past pattern of the disease will continue in the future, this model is powerful to produce real time forecasts in the future with some degree of uncertainty. With the help of these forecasts, the government can make evidence based decisions by utilizing the scarce resource available at its disposal.

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