COVID-19 spread control policies based early dynamics forecasting using deep learning algorithm

Highlights

• Proposed Policies based COVID-19 Spread Forecasting Model to examine the impact of spread in South Korea.

• Proposed Stacked Bi-LSTM Novel Forecasting Model for COVID-19 Spread Control.

• A comparison between Stacked Bi-LSTM and LSTM is presented.

• Examined individual and collective 10 policies such as school closure, restriction on travel and vice versa.

• Provided the multiple combination of COVID-19 Spread control policies analysis for future Forecasting to minimize the spread.

Abstract

Many severe epidemics and pandemics have hit human civilizations throughout history. The recent Sever Actuate Respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 known as COVID-19 became a global disease and is still growing around the globe. It has severely affected the world’s economy and ways of life. It necessitates predicting the spread in advance and considering various control policies to avoid the country’s complete closure. In this paper, we propose deep learning-based stacked Bi-directional long short-term memory (Stacked Bi-LSTM) network that forecasts COVID-19 more accurately for the country of South Korea. The paper’s main objectives are to present a lightweight, accurate, and optimized model to predict the spread considering restriction policies such as school closure, workspace closing, and the canceling of public events. Based on the fourteen parameters (including control policies), we predict and forecast the future value of the number of positive, dead, recovered, and quarantined cases. In this paper, we use the dataset of South Korea comprised of several control policies implemented for minimizing the spread of COVID-19. We compare the performance of the stacked Bi-LSTM with the traditional time-series models and LSTM model using the performance metrics mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Moreover, we study the impact of control policies on forecasting accuracy. We further study the impact of changing the Bi-LSTM default activation functions Tanh with ReLU on forecasting accuracy. The research provides insight to policymakers to optimize the pooling of resources more optimally on the correct date and time prior to the event and to control the spread by employing various strategies in the meantime.