COVID-19 Epidemics in Brazil: Political Influences on Its Incidence and the Economic Impacts of Its Mortality

25 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2021

See all articles by Patrícia F. Rodrigues

Patrícia F. Rodrigues

University of São Paulo (USP)

Márcio Moretto Ribeiro

University of São Paulo (USP) - School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH)

Camila Camargo

University of São Paulo (USP)

Eduardo Massad

University of São Paulo (USP)

Date Written: June 15, 2021

Abstract

We performed an economic valuation of the excess mortality resulting from non-compliance with social isolation measures in Brazil, mainly establishing the impact of political alignment to the conduct of the epidemic by the federal government. The political alignment was concluded to be associated with a decrease of 2% in compliance. The excess mortality was accessed using an SEIR model, concluding that 25,538 (10,528 – 40,554) of the 58,314 deaths that occurred in the country from February 26th to June 29th could be associated to political alignment, with an economic impact of USD 35 (11·8 – 68·1) billion. Results show that the impacts of variations in isolation and the economic consequences are very high, even in the face of minimal changes in compliance. In a political scenario that was characterized by political polarization and conflicts, they corroborate with the need for efficient and integrated public health measures to control de pandemics in the country.

Note: Funding Statement: Patricia Ferrini Rodrigues acknowledges funding from the São Paulo Research Foundation (process 2017/06670-9). Eduardo Massad acknowledges project ZikaPLAN, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 734584, by LIM01-HFMUSP, CNPq and Fundacao Butantan

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare they have no actual or potential competing financial interests.

Keywords: S-E-I-R Model, COVID-19, Bolsonaro, Value of Statistical Life, Politics

Suggested Citation

Ferrini Rodrigues, Patrícia and Moretto Ribeiro, Márcio and Camargo, Camila and Massad, Eduardo, COVID-19 Epidemics in Brazil: Political Influences on Its Incidence and the Economic Impacts of Its Mortality (June 15, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3867770 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3867770

Patrícia Ferrini Rodrigues

University of São Paulo (USP)

Rua Luciano Gualberto, 315
São Paulo, São Paulo 14800-901
Brazil

Márcio Moretto Ribeiro (Contact Author)

University of São Paulo (USP) - School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH) ( email )

Av. Arlindo Bettio, 1000
Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo 03828000
Brazil

HOME PAGE: http://monitordigital.org

Camila Camargo

University of São Paulo (USP) ( email )

Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto 380
Sao Paulo, 05508-010
Brazil

Eduardo Massad

University of São Paulo (USP) ( email )

Rua Luciano Gualberto, 315
São Paulo, São Paulo 14800-901
Brazil

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