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Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces Covid-19 Morbidity and Mortality Across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example

24 Pages Posted: 27 Aug 2021

See all articles by Tinevimbo Shiri

Tinevimbo Shiri

Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd

Marc Evans

Cardiff University - University Hospital Llandough

Carla A. Talarico

Moderna, Inc.

Angharad R. Morgan

Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd

Maaz Mussad

Moderna, Inc.

Philip O. Buck

Moderna, Inc.

Phil McEwan

Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd

William David Strain

University of Exeter - Diabetes and Vascular Research Centre; University of Exeter - Academic Department of Healthcare for Older People

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Abstract

Background: Debate persists around the risk-benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against Covid-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups.

Methods: We developed a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the Covid-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example.

Results: The base case model demonstrates significant increases in Covid-19 disease burden in the UK following relaxation of restrictions from 19 July 2021, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). This vaccination strategy would result in approximately 60% of new infections being in those <18 years, with these individuals accounting for 14% hospital admissions, 61% long Covid cases and 0.2% deaths. Including adolescents and children in the vaccination programme could reduce overall Covid-related mortality by 57% and long Covid by 75%.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent Covid-19 morbidity and mortality across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.

Funding: Funding for this study was provided by Moderna, Inc.

Declaration of Interest: TS, ARM and PM are employees of Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, UK. Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd received fees from Moderna in relation to this study. MM is an employee of Moderna, Inc. CAT and POB are employees of Moderna, Inc. and hold Moderna stocks/stock options. ME and WDS have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Suggested Citation

Shiri, Tinevimbo and Evans, Marc and Talarico, Carla A. and Morgan, Angharad R. and Mussad, Maaz and Buck, Philip O. and McEwan, Phil and Strain, William David, Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces Covid-19 Morbidity and Mortality Across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3908484 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3908484

Tinevimbo Shiri

Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd

Cardiff
United Kingdom

Marc Evans

Cardiff University - University Hospital Llandough

Llandough
United Kingdom

Carla A. Talarico

Moderna, Inc. ( email )

United States

Angharad R. Morgan

Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd ( email )

Cardiff
United Kingdom

Maaz Mussad

Moderna, Inc. ( email )

United States

Philip O. Buck

Moderna, Inc. ( email )

United States

Phil McEwan

Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd

Cardiff
United Kingdom

William David Strain (Contact Author)

University of Exeter - Diabetes and Vascular Research Centre ( email )

Royal Devon & Exeter Hospital
Barrack Road
Exeter, EX2 5AX
United Kingdom
+441392 403058 (Phone)
+441392 403027 (Fax)

University of Exeter - Academic Department of Healthcare for Older People

Barrack Road
Exeter, EX2 5DW
United Kingdom

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