Research Article
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Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: 5, 634 - 638, 05.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.32322/jhsm.946941

Abstract

References

  • Rohat A, Erdem K, Bahadirli S. Thecomparison of two risk prediction models specific for COVID-19: The Brescia-COVID Respiratory Severity Scale versus the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2021: 1-17.
  • Rady MY, Smithline HA, Blake H, Nowak R, Rivers E. A comparison of the shock index and conventional vital signs to identify acute, criticalillness in theemergency department. Ann Emerg Med 1994; 24: 685-90.
  • Allgöwer M, Burri C. “Schockindex”. Dtsch Med Wochenschr 1967; 92: 1947-50.
  • Althunayyan SM, Alsofayan YM, Khan AA. Shock index and modified shock index as triage screening tools for sepsis. J Infect Public Health 2019; 12: 822-6.
  • Pandit V, Rhee P, Hashmi A, et al. Shock index predicts mortality in geriatric trauma patients: an analysis of the National Trauma Data Bank. J. Trauma Acute Care Surg 2014; 76: 1111-5.
  • McCall SJ, Musgrave SD, Potter JF, et al. The shock index predicts acute mortality outcomes in stroke. Int J Cardiol 2015; 182: 523-7.
  • Sankaran P, Kamath AV, Tariq SM, et al. Are shock index and adjusted shock index useful in predicting mortality and length of stay in community-acquired pneumonia? Eur J Intern Med 2011; 22: 282-5.
  • Liu YC, Liu JH, Fang ZA, et al. Modified shock index and mortality rate of emergency patients. World J Emerg Med 2012; 3: 114.
  • Zarzaur BL, Croce MA, Fischer PE, Magnotti LJ, Fabian TC. New vitals after injury: shock index for the young and age shock index for the old.  J Surg Res 2008; 147: 229-36.
  • Jayaprakash N, Gajic O, Frank RD, Smischney N. Elevated modified shock index in early sepsis is associated with myocardial dysfunction and mortality. J Crit Care 2018; 43: 30-5.
  • Levy MM, Rhodes A, Evans LE, et al. COUNTERPOINT: should the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines be retired? No. Chest 2019; 155: 14-7.
  • Nguyen HB, Rivers EP, Knoblich BP, et al. Early lactate clearance is associated with improved outcome in severe sepsis and septic shock. Crit Care Med 2004; 32: 1637-42.
  • Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet 2020; 395: 497-506.
  • Sun X, Wang T, Cai D, et al. Cytokine storm İntervention in the early stages of COVID-19 pneumonia. Cytokine Growth Factor Rev 2020; 53: 38-42.
  • Cannon CM, Braxton CC, Kling-Smith M, et al. Utility of the shock index in predicting mortality in traumatically injured patients. J. Trauma Acute Care Surg 2009; 67: 1426-30.
  • Otero R, Trujillo-Santos J, Cayuela A, et al. Haemodynamically unstable pulmonary embolism in the RIETE Registry: systolic blood pressure or shock index? Eur Respir J 2007; 30: 1111-6.
  • Rousseaux J, Grandbastien B, Dorkenoo A, Lampin ME, Leteurtre S, Leclerc F. Prognostic value of shock index in children with septic shock. Pediatr Emerg Care 2013; 29: 1055-9.
  • Du RH, Liang LR, Yang C-Q, et al. Predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2: a prospective cohort study.  Eur Respir J 2020; 55-5.
  • Esfandiarei M, McManus BM. Molecular biology and pathogenesis of viral myocarditis. AnnuRev Pathol Mech Dis 2008; 3: 127-55.
  • Zou X, Chen K, Zou J, Han P, Hao J, Han Z. Single-cell RNA-seq data analysis on the receptor ACE2 expression reveals the potential risk of different human organs vulnerable to 2019-nCoV infection. Front Med 2020: 1-8.
  • Hu H, Ma F, Wei X, Fang Y. Corona virüs fulminant myocarditis treated with glucocorticoid and human immunoglobulin. Eur Heart J 2021; 42: 206.
  • Haddad F, Hunt SA, Rosenthal DN, Murphy DJ. Right ventricular function in cardio vascular disease, part I: anatomy, physiology, aging, and functional assessment of the right ventricle. Circulation 2008; 117: 1436-48.
  • Martínez-Mateo V, Fernández-Anguita MJ, Paule A. Electro cardiographic signs of acute right ventricular hypertrophy in patientswith COVID-19 pneumonia: A clinica lcases eries. J. Electrocardiol 2020; 62: 100-2.
  • Yasaka Y, Khemani RG, Markovitz BP. Is shock index associated with outcome in children with sepsis/septicshock? Pediatr Crit Care Med 2013; 14: e372-e9.

Comparison of the ability of the shock index, modified shock index and age shock index to predict mortality in geriatric patients with COVID-19 pneumonia

Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: 5, 634 - 638, 05.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.32322/jhsm.946941

Abstract

ÖZET

Giriş: COVID-19 pnömonisi olan yaşlı hastalarda hastalığın ciddiyetini ve mortalitesini erken bir aşamada tahmin etmek için acilen bir prognostik ölçüme ihtiyaç vardır. Amacımız, COVID 19 pnömonisi olan ileri yaştaki hastalarda mortalitenin erken tahmininde şok, modifiye şok ve yaş şok indeksinin rolünü araştırmaktı.
Gereç ve yöntem: Çalışmaya, pozitif RT-PCR testi ile doğrulanmış COVID-19 pnömonisi olan 65 yaş üstü hastalar dahil edildi. Dahil edilen tüm hastalar için her üç indeks de hesaplandı. Mortaliteyi belirlemede indekslerin prediktif değerlerini belirlemek için ROC analizi kullanıldı.
Bulgular: Dahil etme ve hariç tutma kriterleri değerlendirildikten sonra toplam 134 hasta ile çalışma tamamlandı. Mortaliteyi öngörmede şok indeksi ve yaş şok indeksinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı farklılık göstermediği bulundu (sırasıyla p=0.23 ve p=0.06). Mortaliteyi tahmin etmede modifiye şok indeksinin ROC analizinde eğrinin altında kalan alan 0.658 (%95 CI 0.572-0.738) ve Youden indeksi 0.35 (p=0.02) idi. Daha yüksek modifiye şok indeks değerlerine sahip vakaların, düşük değerlere sahip olanlara göre ölümle sonuçlanma olasılığı 86 kat daha fazla bulundu.
Sonuç: Modifiye şok indeksi, RT-PCR ve tomografi ile doğrulanmış COVID-19 pnömonisi olan 65 yaş üstü hastalarda acil serviste triyaj sırasında mortaliteyi tahmin etmek için kullanılabilecek hızlı, basit ve etkili bir yöntemdir.

Anahtar kelimler: Koronavirüs, Kovid-19, Modifiye şok indeksi, Şok indeksi, Yaş şok indeksi

ABSTRACT

Introduction: A prognostic measure is urgently needed to predict the severity and mortality of the disease at an early stage in elderly patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
We aimed determine the shock, modified shock and age shock indexes in the early prediction of mortality in advanced-age patients with COVID 19 pneumonia.
Material and Method: The study included patients over 65 years of age with COVID-19 pneumonia confirmed with a positive RT-PCR test. All three indexes were calculated for all the included patients. The ROC analysis was used to determine the predictive values of the indexes in determining mortality.
Results: After evaluating the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the study was completed with a total of 134 patients. It was found that the shock index and age shock index did not statistically significantly differ in predicting mortality (p=0.23 and p=0.06, respectively). In the ROC analysis of the modified shock index in predicting mortality, the area under the curve was 0.658 (95% CI 0.572-0.738) and the Youden index was 0.35 (p=0.02). Cases with higher modified shock index values were found to be 86 times more likely to result in mortality than those with lower values.
Conclusion: The modified shock index is a fast, simple and effective method that can be used to predict mortality during triage in the emergency department in patients aged over 65 with COVID-19 pneumonia confirmed by RT-PCR and tomography.
DESIGN: Observational, retrospective medical record review.

Keywords: Age shock index, Coronavirus, Covid-19, Modified shock index, pneumonia, shock index

References

  • Rohat A, Erdem K, Bahadirli S. Thecomparison of two risk prediction models specific for COVID-19: The Brescia-COVID Respiratory Severity Scale versus the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2021: 1-17.
  • Rady MY, Smithline HA, Blake H, Nowak R, Rivers E. A comparison of the shock index and conventional vital signs to identify acute, criticalillness in theemergency department. Ann Emerg Med 1994; 24: 685-90.
  • Allgöwer M, Burri C. “Schockindex”. Dtsch Med Wochenschr 1967; 92: 1947-50.
  • Althunayyan SM, Alsofayan YM, Khan AA. Shock index and modified shock index as triage screening tools for sepsis. J Infect Public Health 2019; 12: 822-6.
  • Pandit V, Rhee P, Hashmi A, et al. Shock index predicts mortality in geriatric trauma patients: an analysis of the National Trauma Data Bank. J. Trauma Acute Care Surg 2014; 76: 1111-5.
  • McCall SJ, Musgrave SD, Potter JF, et al. The shock index predicts acute mortality outcomes in stroke. Int J Cardiol 2015; 182: 523-7.
  • Sankaran P, Kamath AV, Tariq SM, et al. Are shock index and adjusted shock index useful in predicting mortality and length of stay in community-acquired pneumonia? Eur J Intern Med 2011; 22: 282-5.
  • Liu YC, Liu JH, Fang ZA, et al. Modified shock index and mortality rate of emergency patients. World J Emerg Med 2012; 3: 114.
  • Zarzaur BL, Croce MA, Fischer PE, Magnotti LJ, Fabian TC. New vitals after injury: shock index for the young and age shock index for the old.  J Surg Res 2008; 147: 229-36.
  • Jayaprakash N, Gajic O, Frank RD, Smischney N. Elevated modified shock index in early sepsis is associated with myocardial dysfunction and mortality. J Crit Care 2018; 43: 30-5.
  • Levy MM, Rhodes A, Evans LE, et al. COUNTERPOINT: should the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines be retired? No. Chest 2019; 155: 14-7.
  • Nguyen HB, Rivers EP, Knoblich BP, et al. Early lactate clearance is associated with improved outcome in severe sepsis and septic shock. Crit Care Med 2004; 32: 1637-42.
  • Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet 2020; 395: 497-506.
  • Sun X, Wang T, Cai D, et al. Cytokine storm İntervention in the early stages of COVID-19 pneumonia. Cytokine Growth Factor Rev 2020; 53: 38-42.
  • Cannon CM, Braxton CC, Kling-Smith M, et al. Utility of the shock index in predicting mortality in traumatically injured patients. J. Trauma Acute Care Surg 2009; 67: 1426-30.
  • Otero R, Trujillo-Santos J, Cayuela A, et al. Haemodynamically unstable pulmonary embolism in the RIETE Registry: systolic blood pressure or shock index? Eur Respir J 2007; 30: 1111-6.
  • Rousseaux J, Grandbastien B, Dorkenoo A, Lampin ME, Leteurtre S, Leclerc F. Prognostic value of shock index in children with septic shock. Pediatr Emerg Care 2013; 29: 1055-9.
  • Du RH, Liang LR, Yang C-Q, et al. Predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2: a prospective cohort study.  Eur Respir J 2020; 55-5.
  • Esfandiarei M, McManus BM. Molecular biology and pathogenesis of viral myocarditis. AnnuRev Pathol Mech Dis 2008; 3: 127-55.
  • Zou X, Chen K, Zou J, Han P, Hao J, Han Z. Single-cell RNA-seq data analysis on the receptor ACE2 expression reveals the potential risk of different human organs vulnerable to 2019-nCoV infection. Front Med 2020: 1-8.
  • Hu H, Ma F, Wei X, Fang Y. Corona virüs fulminant myocarditis treated with glucocorticoid and human immunoglobulin. Eur Heart J 2021; 42: 206.
  • Haddad F, Hunt SA, Rosenthal DN, Murphy DJ. Right ventricular function in cardio vascular disease, part I: anatomy, physiology, aging, and functional assessment of the right ventricle. Circulation 2008; 117: 1436-48.
  • Martínez-Mateo V, Fernández-Anguita MJ, Paule A. Electro cardiographic signs of acute right ventricular hypertrophy in patientswith COVID-19 pneumonia: A clinica lcases eries. J. Electrocardiol 2020; 62: 100-2.
  • Yasaka Y, Khemani RG, Markovitz BP. Is shock index associated with outcome in children with sepsis/septicshock? Pediatr Crit Care Med 2013; 14: e372-e9.
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Health Care Administration
Journal Section Original Article
Authors

Davut Tekyol 0000-0001-9353-6063

Nihat Müjdat Hökenek 0000-0002-8780-572X

Publication Date September 5, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 4 Issue: 5

Cite

AMA Tekyol D, Hökenek NM. Comparison of the ability of the shock index, modified shock index and age shock index to predict mortality in geriatric patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. J Health Sci Med / JHSM. September 2021;4(5):634-638. doi:10.32322/jhsm.946941

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