COVID-19 lockdowns and air quality: Evidence from grey spatiotemporal forecasts

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101228Get rights and content

Highlights

  • This paper proposes a novel spatiotemporal grey model for PM2.5 trend forecasting.

  • This paper considers the momentum effect of historical policies on PM2.5 emission.

  • Comparing the forecast of PM2.5 with actual values, this paper quantifies the spillover effect of lockdown policies.

  • A lockdown has a positive knock-on effect on urban air quality.

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel grey spatiotemporal model and quantitatively analyzes the spillover and momentum effects of the COVID-19 lockdown policy on the concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter of diameter less than 2.5 μm) in Wuhan during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown from 23 January to 8 April 2020 inclusive, and the post-pandemic period from 9 April 2020 to 17 October 2020 inclusive. The results suggest that the stringent lockdowns lead to a reduction in PM2.5 emissions arising from a momentum effect (9.57–18.67%) and a spillover effect (7.07–27.60%).

Keywords

PM2.5 forecasting
Spillover effect
Momentum effect
Grey spatiotemporal model

Cited by (0)

Mingyun GAO was born in 1990. He is a Ph.D. student from Management Science and Engineering in School of Business Administration at Hunan University, China. Gao received B.S. and M.S. degrees from Wuhan University of Technology, China. His research interests are operations research and management sciences, grey forecasting theory, supply chain finance and logistics optimization. E-mail: [email protected]

Honglin YANG is a professor of School of Business Administration at Hunan University, China. He earned his Ph.D. in Management Science and Engineering from Hunan University China. His research interests include operating system optimization, industrial economy and technical economic evaluation, supply chain finance, intelligent supply chain innovation and management. E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

Qinzi XIAO was born in 1991. She is a Ph.D. student from Management Science and Engineering in School of Business Administration at Hunan University, China. Xiao received M.S. degrees from University of Birmingham, UK. Her research interests are operating system optimization, quality management. E-mail: [email protected]

Mark GOH is currently a Professor in the NUS Business School & The Logistics Institute-Asia Pacific at National University of Singapore. He earned a Ph.D. from the University of Adelaide. His current research interests are supply chain management, purchasing, quality and healthcare, service operations. E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

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Mingyun Gao and Honglin Yang contributed equally to this manuscript.

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