The hidden role of the pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R₀ has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to presymptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.