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Late Surges in COVID-19 Cases and Varying Transmission Potential Partially Due to Public Health Policy Changes in 5 Western States, March 10, 2020, to January 10, 2021

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 November 2022

Xinyi Hua Open the ORCID record for Xinyi Hua [Opens in a new window] ,
Aubrey R.D. Kehoe Open the ORCID record for Aubrey R.D. Kehoe [Opens in a new window] ,
Joana Tome Open the ORCID record for Joana Tome [Opens in a new window] ,
Mina Motaghi ,
Sylvia K. Ofori Open the ORCID record for Sylvia K. Ofori [Opens in a new window] ,
Po-Ying Lai ,
Sheikh Taslim Ali Open the ORCID record for Sheikh Taslim Ali [Opens in a new window] ,
Gerardo Chowell Open the ORCID record for Gerardo Chowell [Opens in a new window] ,
Anne C. Spaulding Open the ORCID record for Anne C. Spaulding [Opens in a new window]  and
Isaac Chun-Hai Fung Open the ORCID record for Isaac Chun-Hai Fung [Opens in a new window]
Xinyi Hua
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA
Aubrey R.D. Kehoe
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA
Joana Tome
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA
Mina Motaghi
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA
Sylvia K. Ofori
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA
Po-Ying Lai
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Sheikh Taslim Ali
Affiliation:
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
Gerardo Chowell
Affiliation:
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Anne C. Spaulding
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Isaac Chun-Hai Fung*
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA
*
Corresponding author: Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Email: cfung@georgiasouthern.edu.
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Abstract

Objective:

This study investigates the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission potential in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho from March 2020 through January 2021.

Methods:

Time-varying reproduction numbers, Rt, of a 7-d-sliding-window and of non-overlapping-windows between policy changes were estimated using the instantaneous reproduction number method. Linear regression was performed to evaluate if per-capita cumulative case-count varied across counties with different population size or density.

Results:

The median 7-d-sliding-window Rt estimates across the studied region varied between 1 and 1.25 during September through November 2020. Between November 13 and 18, Rt was reduced by 14.71% (95% credible interval, CrI, [14.41%, 14.99%]) in North Dakota following a mask mandate; Idaho saw a 1.93% (95% CrI [1.87%, 1.99%]) reduction and Montana saw a 9.63% (95% CrI [9.26%, 9.98%]) reduction following the tightening of restrictions. High-population and high-density counties had higher per-capita cumulative case-count in North Dakota on June 30, August 31, October 31, and December 31, 2020. In Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, there were positive correlations between population size and per-capita weekly incident case-count, adjusted for calendar time and social vulnerability index variables.

Conclusions:

Rt decreased after mask mandate during the region’s case-count spike suggested reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Keywords

ecological studyfacemaskCOVID-19reproduction numberSARS-CoV-2
Type
Original Research
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 17 , 2023 , e277
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.

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