Elsevier

Transport Policy

Volume 96, September 2020, Pages 40-47
Transport Policy

Airport risk of importation and exportation of the COVID-19 pandemic

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.06.018Get rights and content

Highlights

  • COVID-19 risk flow of importation and exportation exists despite strict measures.

  • Exportation risk from China, Iran, and European countries has high global spread.

  • Exportation risk has higher global spread than importation risk during the pandemic.

  • Over 90% reduction in air travel is necessary in high cumulative incidence areas.

  • To prevent multiple pandemic waves, it is indispensable to track such risk flow.

Abstract

On March 11, 2020, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized the spread of the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, as a pandemic on the basis of “alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction.” Hence, it is urgent and imperative to evaluate the risk of COVID-19 for as many global locations as possible. This study calculates the relative risk of the importation and exportation of the COVID-19 virus. The study's most important contribution is the calculation of the overall relative risk of the importation and exportation of COVID-19 from every airport in local municipalities around the world, based on global spatial and mapping information. Three scenarios of air travel restriction are considered, and the change in the risk of importation and exportation of COVID-19 is calculated. The relative risk of importation and exportation of COVID-19 clearly shows that not only China, Europe, Middle East, and East Asia, but also the U.S., Australia, and countries in northeast Asia and Latin America are subject to risk. Further, a larger reduction in air travel through airports in a large part of the cumulative incidence area would lead to a gradual decrease in the risk flow. Importantly, the exportation risk of the disease from some airports in China, Iran, and European countries has a higher global spread than the importation risk during the pandemic stage. Therefore, every airport, or government with airports in their jurisdiction, should implement strict countermeasures. It is also indispensable for these countries to undertake countermeasures for COVID-19, such as home quarantine within each country and restricting infected or suspected individuals from flying on airplanes.

Keywords

COVID-19
Exportation risk
Importation risk
Pandemic countermeasures

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