Original Article/Research
Testing our way out of pandemics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hlpt.2022.100714Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Continuous universal testing and isolation strategy is the most viable way to vanquish the pandemic while keeping the economy open with minimal restrictions.

  • The estimated cost of testing is dwarfed by its return, mitigating the economic fallout of the pandemic.

  • To implement universal testing, an epidemiological rather than clinical approach to testing—sacrificing accuracy for scalability, convenience, and speed—is required to reach a large share of population in short time.

Abstract

Objectives

In the face of pandemics, a viable global strategy, beyond relying on the fast discovery of a vaccine or a cure, is needed. We study quantitatively the feasibility and effectiveness of mass testing to contain an epidemic. We also explore the implications of various smart testing strategies to decrease the needed testing rates.

Methods

We use a modified SIR model with testing and extend the model to incorporate mobility patterns in a densely populated area.

Results

For a pandemic like COVID-19, model simulations show that the rate of testing needed to squash the curve within a month varies between 20–30 percent of the population randomly tested daily to less than 5 percent, combining periodic and group testing. We also show that mobility restrictions can enhance the efficacy of testing. Scale could be as important as accuracy in testing, implying that an epidemiological rather than clinical approach for the approval of tests is needed. The estimated cost of testing is dwarfed by its return, mitigating the economic fallout of the pandemic.

Conclusions

Without a vaccine or a cure, mass testing is the only viable and less costly strategy to indefinitely “squash the curve” while allowing for major economic activities to resume. Planning and executing a testing strategy is necessary and urgent as an insurance policy against future pandemics. It should be considered as an investment to build a testing and isolation infrastructure, which should be maintained as part of the pandemic preparedness.

Keywords

Testing
epidemic
COVID-19
Public health policy
SIR model

JEL classification numbers

O25
E1
I1

Cited by (0)

1

We much appreciate the comments and suggestions received from the Senior Editor Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Managing Editor Melanie Wincott, and two anonymous referees that helped improve the paper substantially. We are also grateful to Ralph Chami, Kendall Hoyt, Alfred Kammer, Michael Mina, and Joseph M. Rosen for valuable suggestions and discussions. We would like to thank Turki Abalala, Ryadh Alkhareif, Gerard Almekinders, Karim Barhoumi, Fernando Delgado, Murray Green, Samuel Hurtado, Phakawa Jeasakul, Emily Jones, Amine Mati, Maher Mouminah, Marco Pinon, Adam Ritchie, Tahsin Saadi Sedik, Moez Souissi, Sacha Stelzer-Braid, Evan Tanner, Yunhui Zhao, Jing Zhou, and IMF seminar participants for helpful comments. The views expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. All errors are our own.

View Abstract