Did COVID-19 Force a President to Face the St. Petersburg Paradox and Lose the White House?

15 Pages Posted: 6 Aug 2021

See all articles by Rajaram Gana

Rajaram Gana

Georgetown University - School of Medicine

Date Written: August 3, 2021

Abstract

It is said that a strategy to contain the COVID-19 pandemic is to “follow the Science”. This paper argues that following the Science, although very important, is secondary to following the probability of infection or death, however small that probability might appear to be at a given time. Following the Science is difficult, because it takes time to understand phenomena; and there are many hurdles to overcome in order to effectively disseminate it to the people. It is far easier for a Leader to invoke the St. Petersburg Paradox (SPP) and, by being a Teacher to the people, disseminate the dangers of staking too much by ignoring small probabilities. The SPP, which has remained, for more than 300 years now, an important and unsolved problem in Economics and Philosophy, vividly, and simply, teaches us to not assume that we will emerge victorious when facing small probabilities. It is argued that a Leader facing small probabilities, generated by this most formidable pathogen, can mitigate a very large loss by urging them to pay the relatively small cost of taking preventative measures to combat the pathogen. In the presence of such small probabilities, Science can never reach the heart of a nation as effectively, and speedily, as can a Leader invoking the SPP. Although it is human to be impatient, a small probability can grow explosively in a short time, leaving unimaginable losses in its wake, if there is no Teacher to alert us to that fact.

Keywords: COVID-19, President of the United States, St. Petersburg Paradox, Ridge Regression

Suggested Citation

Gana, Rajaram, Did COVID-19 Force a President to Face the St. Petersburg Paradox and Lose the White House? (August 3, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3898613 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3898613

Rajaram Gana (Contact Author)

Georgetown University - School of Medicine ( email )

Medical Dental Building
3900 Reservoir Road, N.W.
Washington, DC 20057-1409
United States

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
44
Abstract Views
481
PlumX Metrics