Heliyon
Volume 8, Issue 10, October 2022, e10901
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Research article
COVID-19 transmission in Africa: estimating the role of meteorological factors

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10901Get rights and content
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Abstract

Climate variables play a critical role in COVID-19’s spread. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the effect of average temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 in Africa's first four affected countries (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, and Ethiopia). As a result, policymakers should develop effective COVID-19 spread control strategies. For each country, using daily data of confirmed cases and weather variables from May 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, generalized linear models (Poisson regression) and general linear models were estimated. According to the findings, the rising average temperature causes COVID-19 daily new cases to increase in South Africa and Ethiopia while decreasing in Morocco and Tunisia. However, in Tunisia, the relative humidity and daily new cases of COVID-19 are positively correlated, while in the other three countries, they are negatively associated.

Keywords

Coronavirus
Generalized linear models
Poisson regression
Weather conditions

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