Determinants of the number of deaths from COVID-19: differences between low-income and high-income countries in the initial stages of the pandemic

The purpose of this study is to understand the factors that contribute to the number of reported coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths among low-income and high-income countries, and to understand the sources of differences between these two groups of countries.

Multiple linear regression models evaluate the socio-economic factors that determine COVID-19 deaths in the two groups of countries. The Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition is used to examine sources of differences between these two groups.

Low-income countries report a significantly lower average number of COVID-19 deaths compared to high-income countries. Community mobility and the easiness of carrying the virus from one place to another are significant factors affecting the number of deaths, while life expectancy is only significant in high-income countries. Higher health expenditure is associated with more reported deaths in both high- and low-income countries. Factors such as the transport infrastructure system, life expectancy and the percent of expenditure on health lead to the differences in the number of deaths between high- and low-income countries.

Our study shows that mobility measures taken by individuals to limit the spread of the virus are important to prevent deaths in both high- and low-income countries. Additionally, our results suggest that countries with weak health institutions underestimate the number of deaths from COVID-19, especially low-income countries. The underestimation of COVID-19 deaths could be affecting a great number of people in poverty in low-income economies.

This paper contributes to the emerging literature on COVID-19 and its relation to socio-economic factors by examining the differences in reported between deaths between rates in low-income and high-income countries.