Elsevier

Cities

Volume 126, July 2022, 103675
Cities

Looking into mobility in the Covid-19 ‘eye of the storm’: Simulating virus spread and urban resilience in the Wuhan city region travel flow network

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103675Get rights and content
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open access

Highlights

  • The spatial organisation of Covid-19 is examined as a negative network externality.

  • An epidemic compartment model and urban network analysis are combined to simulate Covid-19 spread.

  • Not only primate cities but middle places are highly risk exposed to contagion.

  • Urban resilience to a future outbreak relies on travel flow network structural adaptivity.

  • Central place and flow theories are both relevant for understanding virus spatial spread.

Abstract

Recent urban and regional studies have focused on identifying positive spillover effects from intensifying flows of people in city region networks. However, potential negative spillover effects have lacked attention. The article addresses this research gap focusing on the negative spillover effects represented by Covid-19 contagion in the Wuhan regional travel flow network, China. Drawing on central place theory and central flow theory, Covid-19 spatial spread simulation scenarios are explored using a combined micro-level epidemic compartment model and urban network approach. It is found that not only centrally positioned primate but secondary cities are highly risk exposed to contagion. In addition, these cities have enhanced transmission capacity in a balanced, well-connected travel flow network, whereas a centralised or locally clustered network would be more spread resilient. Both hierarchical position and horizontal flows are found relevant for explaining Covid-19 uneven spread and for informing mobility interventions for a potential future outbreak.

Keywords

Covid-19
City region
Travel flow Network
Spillover effects
Central place theory
Central flow theory

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