Modelling Long-Term COVID-19 Impacts on the U.S. Workforce of 2029

Shutters, S. T. (2021) Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029. Plos One 16(12):e0260797, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0260797

17 Pages Posted: 26 Aug 2021 Last revised: 18 May 2022

See all articles by Shade T. Shutters

Shade T. Shutters

Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Complex Adaptive Systems

Date Written: August 25, 2021

Abstract

While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While much has been written about the pandemic’s short-term impacts, this study analyzes anticipated long-term impacts on the labor force of 2029 by comparing original 2029 labor projections to special COVID-adjusted projections recently published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Results show that future demand for nearly every type of labor skill and knowledge will increase, while the nature of work shifts from physical to more cognitive activities. Of the nearly three million jobs projected to disappear by 2029 due to COVID, over 91% are among workers without a bachelor’s degree. Among workers with a degree demand shifts primarily from business-related degrees to computer and STEM degrees. Results further show that the socialness of labor, which is important for both innovation and productivity, increases in many more industries than it decreases. Finally, COVID will likely accelerate the adoption of teleworking and slightly decrease the rate of workforce automation. These impacts, combined with a shift to more cognitive worker activities, will likely impact the nature of workforce health and safety with less focus on physical injuries and more on illnesses related to sedentary lifestyles. Overall, results suggest that future workers will need to engage more often in training and skill acquisition, requiring life-long learning and skill maintenance strategies.

Keywords: labor skills, college degree, workforce, labor dynamics, COVID-19, innovation, worker productivity, employment projections

JEL Classification: I26, J11, J21, J24

Suggested Citation

Shutters, Shade T., Modelling Long-Term COVID-19 Impacts on the U.S. Workforce of 2029 (August 25, 2021). Shutters, S. T. (2021) Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029. Plos One 16(12):e0260797, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0260797, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3911455 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3911455

Shade T. Shutters (Contact Author)

Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Complex Adaptive Systems ( email )

PO Box 872701
Tempe, AZ 85287-2701
United States

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