Volume 18, Special Issue on Current Trends in Management and Information Technology, 2021
Dynamic Analytics and Forecasting Model for Covid-19 Using Machine Learning Algorithms
C. Siva, K.G. Maheshwari, G. Nalinipriya and J. Priscilla Mary
Abstract
In our day to day life, the availability of correctly labelled data as well as handling of categorical data are mostly acknowledged as two main challenges in dynamic analysis. Therefore, clustering techniques are applied on unlabelled data to group them in accordance with the homogeneity. There are many prediction methods that are being popularly used in handling forecasting problems in real time environment. The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID19)-2019 creates the need for a medical emergency of worldwide concern with a rapidly high danger of open out and strike the entire world. Recently, the ML prediction models were used in many real time applications which necessitate the identification and categorization for real time environment. In medical field Prediction models are vital role to obtain observations of spread and significances of infectious diseases. Machine learning related forecasting mechanisms have showed their importance to develop the decision making on the upcoming course of actions. The K-means algorithm and hierarchy were applied directly on the renewed dataset using R programming language to create the covid patient cluster. Confirmed Covid patients count are passed to Prophet package, then the prophet model has been created. This forecasts model predicts the future covid count, which is essential for the clinical and healthcare leaders to make the appropriate measures in advance. The results of the experiments indicate that the quality of Hierarchical clustering outperforms than the K-Means clustering algorithm in the structured structured dataset. Thus, the prediction model also used to support model predictions help for the officials to take timely actions and make decisions to contain the COVID-19 dilemma. This work concludes Hierarchical clustering algorithm is the best model for clustering the covid data set obtained from world health organization (WHO).
Pages: 1212-1225
DOI: 10.14704/WEB/V18SI05/WEB18302
Keywords: COVID 19, Forecasting Model, Machine Learning Algorithms, Dynamic Analytic, k Means Clustering, Hierarchical Clustering.