Ordered Logit Models to Investigate the Effect of Covid-19 on the Use of Public Transportation
33 Pages Posted: 29 Dec 2021
Abstract
The Covid -19 pandemic, which emerged in December 2019 and is still continuing nowadays, has caused behavioral changes in the social life of many people and created differences in their travel habits and patterns. Since the fate of the ongoing pandemic is not known, it is important to investigate and analyze these differences and make appropriate inferences, especially in terms of ensuring the sustainability of transportation. In this study, it is aimed to generate a foresight for transportation planning in the ongoing pandemic by analyzing the behavioral changes in the demand for traveling by public transportation in Bursa province of Turkey during the pandemic. First of all, the general situation was assessed by comparing the passengers of the busses, tram, and light rail transit systems before and during the pandemic provided by BURSARAY. Afterwards, an online survey was conducted. 767 people participated in the survey. In addition, two different Ordinal Logit Models have been developed to determine the factors affecting public transportation usage preferences before and during the pandemic. According to the study, the factors affecting usage of public transportation are age, gender and distance between home and workplace before the pandemic; while educational status and distance between home and workplace play imperative roles during the pandemic. In addition, although it was seen that the amount of preference of public transportation by females decreased during the pandemic, and the elderly and middle-aged group preferred public transportation more than the young, it was seen that the tendency to private vehicles increased overall during the pandemic.
Keywords: Covid-19, Public Transport, Ordered Logistic Model
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