JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality, with large numbers of patients requiring intensive care threatening to overwhelm healthcare systems globally. There is an urgent need for a COVID-19 disease severity assessment that can assist in patient triage and resource allocation for patients at risk for severe disease.

Objective:

The goal of this study was to develop, validate, and scale a clinical decision support system and mobile app to assist in COVID-19 severity assessment, management, and care.

Methods:

Model training data from 701 patients with COVID-19 were collected across practices within the Family Health Centers network at New York University Langone Health. A two-tiered model was developed. Tier 1 uses easily available, non-laboratory data to help determine whether biomarker-based testing and/or hospitalization is necessary. Tier 2 predicts probability of mortality using biomarker measurements (CRP, PCT, D-dimer) and age. Both Tier 1 and Tier 2 models were validated using two external datasets from hospitals in Wuhan, China comprising 160 and 375 patients, respectively.

Results:

All biomarkers were measured at significantly higher levels in patients that died vs. those that were not hospitalized or discharged (P < .001). The Tier 1 and Tier 2 internal validation had AUC (95% confidence interval) of 0.79 (0.74–0.84) and 0.95 (0.92–0.98), respectively. The Tier 1 and Tier 2 external validation had AUCs of 0.79 (0.74–0.84) and 0.97 (0.95–0.99), respectively.

Conclusions:

Our results demonstrate validity of the clinical decision support system and mobile app, which are now ready to assist healthcare providers in making evidence-based decisions in managing COVID-19 patient care. The deployment of these new capabilities has potential for immediate impact in community clinics, sites whereby application of such tools could lead to improvements in patient outcomes and cost containment.