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Virus Mutation Direction and a Possible Frequency-Time Model Based on Variants' Genome Information and Global COVID-19 Epidemic Data

5 Pages Posted: 27 Dec 2022

See all articles by JinShuo Li

JinShuo Li

Beijing No 4 high school

Ning Tao

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) - Laboratory of Protein and Peptide Pharmaceuticals

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Abstract

COVID-19 has been prevalent in the world for nearly three years. However, although people have obtained all the genome sequence information of this virus and its variants, the direction of virus evolution is still confusing. According to the available data, there are four known viral virulence proteins, Nsp6, Orf6, Orf7a and Orf3a. Although Orf3a has no short-term toxicity, it may affect its life-span, so we also count this protein as a type of toxic protein. The protein that causes the increase in infection intensity is the most striking class of proteins: the spike protein. Through the study of these four proteins, and sequence analysis in different variants, we found that the virulence of the mutants did not decrease, on the contrary, the virulence of some mutants increased. At the same time, based on the above conclusions and data from the World Health Organization and GISAID, Nextstrain, we describe the frequency-time curve. The construction of this model will help predict the direction of the new coronavirus mutation and provide assistance for vaccine and drug development.

Funding Information: No source of funds.

Declaration of Interests: Authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Keywords: COVID-19, Public Health, mutation, model, variants

Suggested Citation

Li, JinShuo and Tao, Ning, Virus Mutation Direction and a Possible Frequency-Time Model Based on Variants' Genome Information and Global COVID-19 Epidemic Data. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4270300 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4270300

JinShuo Li

Beijing No 4 high school

secret
secret
Xicheng, Beijing 100055
China

Ning Tao (Contact Author)

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) - Laboratory of Protein and Peptide Pharmaceuticals ( email )

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