Spatio-temporal distribution pattern of COVID-19 in the Northern Italy during the first-wave scenario: The role of the highway network

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2022.100646Get rights and content
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Highlights

  • Statistical methodology for COVID-19 analysis.

  • epidemic diffusion model for COVID-19.

  • COVID-19 spread on highways in North Italy.

Abstract

Background

The rapid outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed several challenges to the scientific community. The goal of this paper is to investigate the spread of COVID-19 in Northern Italy during the so-called first wave scenario and to provide a qualitative comparison with the local highway net.

Methods

Fixed a grid of days from February 27, 2020, the cumulative numbers of infections in each considered province have been compared to sequences of thresholds. As a consequence, a time-evolving classification of the state of danger in terms of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, in view of the smallest threshold overtaken by this comparison, has been obtained for each considered province. The provinces with a significant amount of cases have then been collected into matrices containing only the ones featuring a significant amount of cases.

Results

The time evolution of the classification has then been qualitatively compared to the highway network, to identify similarities and thus linking the rapid spreading of COVID-19 and the highway connections.

Conclusions

The obtained results demonstrate how the proposed model properly fits with the spread of COVID-19 along with the Italian highway transport network and could be implemented to analyze qualitatively other disease transmissions in different contexts and time periods.

Abbreviations

COVID-19
Coronavirus disease 2019
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
SS9
Via Emilia
E35
European route from Amsterdam to Rome
E70
European route from Coruña to Poti
E55
European route from Helsingborg to Kalamáta
E45
European route from Alta to Gela
A7
Italian highway from Milano to Genova
A6
Italian highway from Torino to Savona
A4
Italian highway from Torino to Trieste
A27
Italian highway from Venezia to Pian di Vedoia
LO
Province of Lodi
BG
Province of Bergamo
CR
Province of Cremona
PC
Province of Piacenza
PD
Province of Padova
PV
Province of Pavia
PR
Province of Parma
TR
Province of Treviso
TO
Province of Torino
MI
Province of Milano
BR
Province of Brescia
RO
Province of Rovigo
GO
Province of Gorizia

Keywords

COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Spatial epidemiology
Disease outbreak scenarios
Highway

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