COVID-19 Outpatient Screening: A Novel Risk Score to Early Predict Admission in Isolation Care Units
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Maroua Trigui 1, Houda Ben Ayed 2 * , Mondher Kassis 1, Maissa Ben Jmaa 2, Mariem Ben Hmida 1, Hanen Maamri 1, Nouha Ketata 2, Jihene Jedidi 1, Sourour Yaich 1, Habib Feki 2, Jamel Damak 1
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1 Community Health and Epidemiology Department, Hedi Chaker University Hospital, University of Sfax, TUNISIA2 Preventive Medicine and Hospital Hygiene Department, Hedi Chaker University Hospital, Sfax, TUNISIA* Corresponding Author

Abstract

The coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the defining global health crisis of our time. Delays in hospitalization of patients with a severe form of COVID-19 contribute to increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to perform a reliable and easy-to-use risk scoring system to early predict admission in COVID-19 isolation care units. It was a prospective study including all patients, consulting to the COVID-19 sorting box at Hedi Chaker university hospital, and who were clinically suspected COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave between March and June 2020. Of all,388 patients were enrolled in the study.Multivariate analysis showed that factors independently associated with admission to COVID-19 isolation tertiary-care unit were oxygen saturation<88% (Adjusted Relative Risk (ARR)=16.91;p=0.013), hypotension (ARR=11.71;p=0.004),oxygen saturation between 88 and 92% (ARR=5.90;p=0.001),respiratory wrestling signs (ARR=4.63;p=0.042),dyspnea (ARR=3.22;p<0.001), chronic hypertension (ARR=2.76;p=0.027) and ischemic heart diseases (ARR=2.67;p=0.035).The score had an AUROC of 0.75.At a cut-off point≥2, the scoring system had a sensitivity of 82.7%, a specificity of 53.8%, a positive predictive value of 53% and a negative predictive value 83.1%.When the cut-off was raised to 3, the sensitivity dropped (44%) and the specificity increased appreciably (92.9%).

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Article Type: Original Article

ELECTRON J GEN MED, 2021, Volume 18, Issue 5, Article No: em309

https://doi.org/10.29333/ejgm/11063

Publication date: 13 Jul 2021

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