Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jul 21, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Jul 20, 2020 - Aug 3, 2020
Date Accepted: Sep 9, 2020
Date Submitted to PubMed: Oct 1, 2020
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Anatomy of the COVID-19 outbreak at district level: 120 days experience from Jodhpur, India
ABSTRACT
Background:
Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 at a local level is becoming increasingly important to guide effective control measures.
Objective:
We aimed to estimate the serial interval and basic reproduction number (R0) for Jodhpur, India and to use it for epidemic projection for next one month.
Methods:
Contact tracing of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals was done to obtain the serial intervals. Aggregate and instantaneous R0 values were derived and epidemic projection was done using R software v4.0.0.
Results:
Median and 95 percentile values of serial interval were 5.23 days (95%CI 4.72 – 5.79) and 13.20 days (95%CI 10.90 – 18.18), respectively. R0 during the first 30 days of outbreak was 1.62 (95%CI 1.07 – 2.17) which subsequently decreased to 1.15 (95%CI 1.09 – 1.21). Instantaneous R0 ranged from a peak of 3.43 (95%CI 1.71 – 5.74) to 1.12 (95%CI 1.03 – 1.21) as on 6 July 2020. Epidemic projection over next one month was 2131 individuals (95%CI 1799 – 2462). Reduction of transmission by 25% and 50% could lead to 58.7% and 84.0% reduction in epidemic size, respectively.
Conclusions:
Aggressive control measures reduced R0 indicating prevention of COVID-19 transmission. Further strengthening of control measures could lead to substantial reduction of COVID-19 epidemic size. A data-driven approach at local level was found useful in guiding the public health strategy and surge capacity planning.
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