포스트 코로나 시대의 아세안 공동체 변화와 신남방정책의 과제 (The ASEAN Community in the Post COVID-19 Era: Challenges and Policy Implications)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 아세안은 2015년 아세안 공동체를 출범시키고 정치·안보, 경제, 사회·문화 영역에서 역내 통합을 추진해왔으나, 미·중 전략경쟁 심화 및 코로나19 확산 등대내외 환경 변화로 인해 새로운 도전과제에 직면하고 있다. 특히 코로나19는 아세안의 정치·안보, 경제, 사회·문화 전반에 걸쳐 광범위한 영향을 미치고 있으며, 이러한 영향은 당분간 지속될 것으로 예상된다. 이는 아세안 공동체 추진에 상당한 부담이 될 것으로 보이며, 이에 따라 향후 한-아세안 협력에도 변화가 요구된다.

아세안 공동체의 목표와 가치는 한국 신남방정책의 비전과 긴밀히 연계되어 있다. 아세안의 사회·문화 공동체(ASCC: ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community), 정치·안보 공동체(APSC: ASEAN Political-Security Community), 경제 공동 체(AEC: ASEAN Economic Community)는 각각 신남방정책의 사람(People), 평화(Peace), 상생번영(Prosperity) 공동체에 대응되며, 각 공동체의 변화는 한-아세안 협력 방향에도 영향을 줄 가능성이 크다. 이에 본 연구는 3대 공동체 모두를 포괄하는 연구를 수행, 이를 종합하여 신남방정책에 시사점을 제공하고자 하였다.

본 보고서에서 제안한 AEC, APSC, ASCC별 협력방안은 다음과 같다. 우선 AEC 관련 협력방안은 △ 아세안 경제 공동체 완성에 기여하는 복원력 있고 지속 가능한 GVC 구축지원 △ 아세안의 디지털 전환 지원 △ 아세안의 개발격차해소 지원 △ 아세안의 규제조화로 요약되며, APSC 관련 협력방안은 △ 아세 안다자협의체의 역할 강화 △ 역내 비전통안보 협력 강화 △ 굿거버넌스 확산을 통한 아세안의 민주주의 증진 △ 아세안 사무국의 역량 제고로 요약된다. ASCC 관련 협력방안은 △ 코로나19 위기 극복을 위한 단기적 지원강화 △ 사회·문화 부문 정책 연구기관 설립 △ 인간안보 관련 협의체 신설 △ 아세안의 정체성 형성에 대한 기여 등이다.

English Abstract: This report evaluates the performance of the three pillars of the ASEAN community―the Political-Security, Economic, and SocioCultural pillars―at the halfway point of the blueprint to build the ASEAN Community by 2025. The paper also analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ASEAN Community and comprehensively addresses the existing and newly encountered challenges of ASEAN in the COVID-19 era. Based on these analyses, we derive policy recommendations for cooperation between ASEAN and Korea to support recovery from COVID-19 and successful progress of the ASEAN Community.

ASEAN established the ASEAN Community in 2015 and adopted the three blueprints set out in the strategic measures to build Socio-Cultural, Political-Security, and Economic communities by 2025. Chapter 2 introduces the ASEAN Community’s goals and work plans guided by APSC, AEC, and ASCC blueprints, and examined the implementation mechanism to pursue the various measures. We also review the contents and significance of the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework (ACRF), which is a COVID-19 exit strategy at the ASEAN level, and present our forecasts on the future of the ASEAN Community after COVID-19.

In Chapter 3, this paper evaluates the progress of ASEAN economic integration and examined environmental changes caused by COVID-19, and the challenges faced by ASEAN subsequently. According to the results of this study, AEC’s goal of establishing a “highly integrated and cohesive economy” has been successfully implemented in accordance with its work plan, but the actual economic performance appear to fall short of expectations. Therefore, we identify the factors that hinder ASEAN's economic integration and further present ASEAN's challenges to solve them.

Chapter 4 analyzes the performance of the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) and examines the prospects of the APSC after COVID-19. First, we reviewed the main contents of the APSC Mid-term Review Report released by the ASEAN Secretariat, and analyzed the fundamental limitations of the APSC blueprint 2025. Then we analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the building of APSC. Unlike the AEC and ASCC, it is difficult to say that COVID-19 directly affected the APSC’s progress and accomplishments. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 crisis has resulted in accelerating the existing challenges faced by the APSC, including the U.S.-China competition and the regression of democracy in ASEAN member states. In this respect, this chapter analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the political and security environment in Southeast Asia and the challenges accordingly.

In Chapter 5, this study analyzes the performance of the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) and examined the pending issues after COVID-19. ASCC includes a wide range of cooperation areas, but there is no implementation mechanism that encompasses them;
furthermore it is difficult to secure its own driving force. The field of the ASCC tends to be recognized as a national-level issue intrinsically, which acts to limit the implementation of cooperative projects at the regional level. This study examined the limitations of ASCC described above and analyzed the challenges faced by the ASCC amidst COVID-19.

Finally, Chapter 6 provided policy directions for cooperation between ASEAN and Korea, and suggested measures that contribute to the progress of the AEC, APSC, and ASCC in the post-COVID-19 era.