Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases
Online ISSN : 1884-2836
Print ISSN : 1344-6304
ISSN-L : 1344-6304

This article has now been updated. Please use the final version.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA copy number is a factor associated with the mortality of COVID-19 and improves the predictive performance of mortality in severe cases.
Takahiro MitsumuraTsukasa OkamotoMizuho TosakaTakashi YamanaSho ShimadaYuki IijimaRie SakakibaraSho ShibataTakayuki HondaTsuyoshi ShiraiMasahiro IshizukaJunichi AiboshiHaruhiko FurusawaTomoya TateishiMeiyo TamaokaHidenobu ShigemitsuHirokuni AraiYasuhiro OtomoShuji TohdaTatsuhiko AnzaiKunihiko TakahashiShinsuke YasudaYasunari Miyazaki
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JOURNAL FREE ACCESS Advance online publication

Article ID: JJID.2022.080

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Abstract

Factors associated with mortality are important for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test is the gold standard for diagnosing COVID-19 and reflects the viral load in the upper respiratory tract. This study enrolled 523 patients. Four hundred forty-one and 75 patients were performed PCR testing in nasopharyngeal swabs and sputum specimens, respectively, within 20 days from the onset. We investigated the association between RNA copy number and the severity and mortality of COVID-19, and its effect on the predictive performance for the severity and mortality. RNA copy numbers in nasopharyngeal swabs were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the high RNA copy number (≥ 9 log10 /swab) in nasopharyngeal swabs was a factor associated with mortality (odds ratio, 4.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.510 – 13.100; p = 0.008). Furthermore, in severe cases, adding RNA copy number (≥ 9 log10 /swab), which was adjusted by duration from onset to PCR, improved mortality predictive performance based on known factors. The RNA copy number is a factor associated with the mortality of COVID-19 and can improve the predictive performance of mortality in severe cases.

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