The resilience of Tunisian industrial exports during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from an ARDL approach

Regional Science Policy & Practice (2024). DOI:10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100009

12 Pages Posted: 25 Jan 2022 Last revised: 27 Mar 2024

See all articles by Walid Gani

Walid Gani

Tunisian Competition Council

Date Written: January 24, 2022

Abstract

This paper attempts to study to what extent Tunisian industrial exports have been resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we tested for structural breaks using the Bai-Perron test and monthly data on industrial exports from January 2014 to December 2022. Using the autoregressive distributed lag model, we show that the structural break detected during the pandemic had no negative impact on industrial exports. Besides, the effects of the stringency index had, in the long run, an insignificant impact on Tunisian industrial exports, implying that the latter have proven resilient against the global health crisis. Furthermore, our empirical findings reveal that, in the long run, investment in totally exporting industries and industrial production have a positive impact on industrial exports, while the real effective exchange rate has a negative impact. The present study has many implications, mainly increasing confidence in Tunisia as a resilient economy during crises. It also provides evidence that geographic proximity and resilient trading partners can play a role in mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and contributing to a more effective response in times of crisis.

Keywords: ARDL; cointegration; pandemic; structural break; stringency index; trade

JEL Classification: C32, F14

Suggested Citation

Gani, Walid, The resilience of Tunisian industrial exports during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from an ARDL approach (January 24, 2022). Regional Science Policy & Practice (2024). DOI:10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4016814 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4016814

Walid Gani (Contact Author)

Tunisian Competition Council ( email )

Rue du Lac Biwa, les Berges du Lac
Tunis, 1053
Tunisia

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
95
Abstract Views
427
Rank
495,965
PlumX Metrics