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Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Suicide Rates in Japan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
30 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2022
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Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Suicide Rates in Japan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is negatively impacting mental health globally. There is concern this will exacerbate suicide risk. We examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates by gender and age in Japan.
Methods: We analyzed trends in monthly suicide rates by age and gender from January 2016 to July 2021 using provisional mortality data in an interrupted time series analysis. We also considered linear trends in the pre-pandemic period and seasonal variations. Pandemic onset was defined as from April 2020. A secondary measure was estimated excess deaths by suicide that occurred during the pandemic.
Findings: The pandemic has resulted in increased suicide rates in both Japanese men and women, but the impact has been greater in women. Excess number of suicide deaths during the pandemic period was estimated to be 1156 for males and 1666 for females. Age-specific analysis showed that for males, the impact of the pandemic was stronger in those in the 20-29 and 40-49 age groups and less pronounced in those under 20 and over 50 years. For females, increased suicide rates during the pandemic were seen in all the age groups except for those over 80 years.
Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on suicide rates in Japan and the impact is most pronounced in women and younger age groups. Sub-group analyses are also necessary, with particular attention paid to socio-economic vulnerability.
Funding Information: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Special Research Program Grant Number JPMH20CA2046.
Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests.
Keywords: suicide; Japan; COVID-19 pandemic; an interrupted time series analysis
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation