Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation

ACADEMIA Letters Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Benjamin Oyelami Covid-19 has infringed socio-economic problems on many nations. This article is on the global overview of the disease and modeling procedures to contain the disease. We think of how to exploit mathematical modeling and simulation techniques to study the parthenogenesis, epidemiological characteristics of the disease, and its demographic impact on countries. Moreover, make use of Machine learning interpretable algorithms to analyze covid-19 data and measure the daily basic reproduction numbers of the countries. It is suggestive to study the dynamics of Covid-19 from a sub-molecular level, to understand biotransformation of coronavirus to other variant forms, and to measure drugs and vaccines efficacies. The strategy of the study is to explore new knowledge and simulation tools to understand the dynamics and containment of the disease. The first major challenge is how to boost the economy of nations by providing gainful employment to a large number of people. The second challenge being how to provide effective drugs and vaccines to contain the virus and its variant forms. The third is on how to measure the risk associated with the pandemic and measure the effectiveness of containment strategies. 1 Introduction 1.1 General Overview Covid-19 has infringed socio-economic problems on many nations and seeking solutions to the pandemic using machine learning, mathematical modeling and simulation the author is Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 1 advocating for. For anybody to fully have a grasp of the strategy, we need to have a global overview of Covid-19 pandemic and socioeconomic effects on people worldwide. The origin and strains of coronavirus can be traced to 2003, when Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-COV) broke out. In January 2009, another coronavirus emerged which was a novel strain of the H1NI virus (labeled H1Ni-pdmo9), otherwise called Swine Flu. The virus killed about1.6 million people worldwide. There was no known drug or vaccine to cure swine flu when it breaks out. However, at the end of the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) in December 2009 released a vaccine for the containment of the HINI virus ([7, 16, 18]). Furthermore, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (Mers-COV) or EMC|2012 emerged in 2012. The epicenter of the pandemic was Saudi Arabia; Mers-COV is a RNA virus which enters the host cell by binding to the DPPA receptor ([16]). The Novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (known as SARS-COV-2, n-COVD-19 or 2019-nCOV) is now the epidemic member of the coronavirus family with high-morbidity. Coronavirus (n-Covid-19) was first reported to the WHO office in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019([6, 8]). The pandemic has brought many more challenges than ever to human civilization, medicine and the global economy. Most researchers agreed that the Sar-Cov-2 virus probably originated from horseshoe bats but the route it takes to get to humans remains a mystery. It could jump from bats to human directly and evolved over time to the present pandemic. ([2]). Pangolins, an animal found in southeast Asia and used for Chinese traditional medicine was perceived to be the intermediate host of the virus. China scientists found that both bat and livestock have been tested for SarsCov-2 but no result published. The coronaviridea study group of the International Committee on Taxonomy of viruses identified n-Covid-19 within the coronaviridea –the family of enveloped positive–strand RNA virus infecting vertebrates. They further recognized that a corona virus has 39 species in 27 sub-genera, 5 genera, and two-subfamily that form the family coronaviridae. It is interesting to note that n-Covid-19 is not a descendant of SAR-COV, but genetically close to each other ([3]). At the onset of the pandemic, Hubei province in China was ninety percent (90%) epicenter of the pandemic. The incubation period ranges from1-12.5 days and median 5-6days (WHO guidance includes 14 days). The Fig.1 is on the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases reported by country, territory or area in the last seven days, 17 June to 23 June 2020. The Fig.2 is on the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases, by date of report by WHO regional office, 30 December through 23 June 2020([10]). Fig.3 and Fig. 4 are global reported cases and number of deaths as at 1 January Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 2 2021. Fig.1: Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by country, territory or area in the last seven days, 17 June to 23 June 2020 Source: WHO [10] Fig.2: Number of confirmed Covid-19 cases, by date of report by WHO regional office, 30 December 2019 through 23 June 2020 Source: WHO [10] Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 3 Fig.3: Cumulative number of reported Covid-19 worldwide as of 1st January 2021 Fig. 4: Cumulative number of reported death from Covid-19 worldwide as of 1st January 2021 The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that COVID-19 has so far affected 218 countries, territories, or areas. There were 110.8Million persons infected, 108.34M Recov- Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 4 ered/Discharge and 2.46M globally died from n-Covid-19 disease as reported by Worldometer ([13]) on 21 February 2021, 22:36 GMT. For New reported and cumulative cases of the disease see Table 1 Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 5 Saving lives infected with n-Covid-19 disease was a matter of trial and error, since there was no known potent drug to cure the disease completely or vaccine for prophylactic purpose. Although, worldwide there are more than 115 vaccines (78 confirmed to active and 37 unconfirmed) undergoing clinical trials as of 8 April 2020.So far vaccines for which clinical trials have been concluded were BioNTech Prizer (95% efficacy), Moderna (94.5% efficacy) and Oxford-AstraZeneca (62% efficacy) with not much life-threatening side effects. Other vaccines still undergoing third phase of clinical trial are Sputnik V(92% efficacy),Sinovac and Sinopharm (79% efficacy). Scientists have found that people with pre-existing memory CD4+ T cells that recognize SAR-COV -2 could mount a faster and stronger immune response upon exposure to the virus thereby limiting disease severity ([2]). Researchers have identified genetic variations that could make some people more susceptible to severe COVID-19 symptoms. Mutations in a gene called TYK2 can trigger an excessive immune response to COVID-19 and damage lungs. Mutations in a gene called OAS can keep the protein it encodes to stop viruses from replicating. In addition, defects in the IFNAR2 can prevent the body from launching an early immune response, giving the coronavirus time to be implanted [20]. In November 2020, the UK has been reportedly having a rapid increase in Covid-19 cases in London and southeast England. The new mutant form (B.1.1.7) is alteration of spike protein with 23 mutants each can enter human cells. A factor most likely responsible for mutation is due to immunocompromised as a result of administration of immunosuppressive drugs to corona patients. The variant form binds to the human angiotensin-converting enzyme ACE2 receptor than other versions of coronavirus. The mutants are located in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike domain, N501Y mutation, and binding to (ACE2). The Africa CDC pathogens genomic Institute have identified a new variant of coronavirus in Nigeria some different that of the UK and South Africa. Other countries having new variates of the virus are Denmark, the Netherlands and Australia and Singapore as reported by the World Health Organization. The emergence of various types of Covid-19 virus variants possess greatest danger to humanity in recent times than ever in the history of mankind. The development of drugs and vaccines may have to be specific to some class of mutants and some subclass of them. This simply means some drugs or vaccines for covid-19 developed and used in a particular country may be less effective in other countries with different types of corona variants. Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 6 1.2 Socio-economic effect of covid-19 There were total Lockdowns across many nations including partial economic shutdowns to contain the pandemic. The global economic recession swept across every territory in the world because of covid-19. It is worthy to note that a high incidence of covid-19 cases is concentrated in high-income countries such as the USA, Spain, Italy, and the UK, with rapid surges noticed in Russia. Among developing countries, current hotspots were in Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, and Iran. The UK and some territories in the USA, Israel, Italy are about to go into another round of lockdown because of a new surge of corona outbreaks. The World Bank has predicted that there would be contractions of the economy across the vast majority of emerging markets and developing economies ([12]). Moreover, every region in the world will be subjected to substantial growth retardations. The global economy crumpled by 1% and 50% of the world population is below the poverty line, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported. There were 25 million job losses worldwide and 16 million persons applied for unemployment benefits in the USA. The USA provided 2.2 trillion dollars for business and welfare palliatives. The European Union (EU) has budgeted 580 billion Euros to support EU countries to cope with Covid-19 baleful. About 7.4 billion Euros was pledged by world leaders to support the WHO Programme on the development of Covid-19 vaccines and distribution to poor countries. The United Nations has mobilized the full capacity of the UN system through its 131 country teams serving 162 countries and territories, to support national authorities in developing public health preparedness and response plans to the COVID-19 crisis (UN [10]). United Nations projected in the next 12 to 18 months, the socio-economic response will be one of three critical components of the UN’s COVID-19 response plan. The focal points of the plan are the Economic Stimulus, the Health response, and the Global Humanitarian Response Plan (UN [11]). The World Bank has projected that the economic growth of East Asia and the Pacific will grow by a scant 0.5%. The South Asia economy will contract by 2.7% and that of Sub-Saharan Africa by 2.8%; the Middle East and North Africa by 4.2%, Europe and Central Asia by 4.7%, and Latin America by 7.2% ([12]). There is a global oil price fall orchestrated by the oil glut. The fall in price has affected the majority of oil-producing nations, and lockdown negatively affected the economies of nations. Nigeria is in another round of economic recession because of covid-19. The international travel and hospitality industry suffered huge economic losses because of low patronage. In order to be covid-19 protocol compliance, airlines and hospitality indusAcademia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 7 tries must reduce the number of clients they can receive. In the sports sector, tournaments are played in stadia with little number of spectators so as to observe covid-19 protocol, for example, football matches. This is tantamount to loss of revenue and job opportunities. 2 Recent mathematical modeling Research on the Covid-19 There is growing interest in modeling Covid-19 from January 2020 to date. More papers are expected to be published on the topic in the coming years. A recent review of the literature revealed that the three-compartment model (S-I-R) has been considered using the Verhulst (logistic) equation. The parameters were determined by the basic characteristic of the epidemic process ([4]). The model was tested with recent data on covid-19 as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. In the same vein, a study was made on the local stability of the disease, free equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number ([6]). A new mathematical model for the spread of coronavirus disease (covid-19) has been introduced. The authors obtained results using a new θ-SEIHRD model, which takes into account the known special characteristics of this disease, such as the existence of infectious, undetected cases and the different sanitary and infectiousness conditions of hospitalized people ([4]). Adam et. al. ([1]) used a stochastic transmission model to study the early transmission of covid-19 in Wuhan using data on cases of coronavirus disease from the city. The authors modeled transmission of the virus as a geometric random walk process together with the application of sequential Monte Carlo simulation to compute the transmission rate over time, as well as the resulting number of cases using the time-varying basic reproduction number (Rt). 3 Research Gap in modeling of Covid-19 1. Assessment of new infection and trends: There are now vast historic data on Covid-19. We can deploy Machine-learning algorithms to analyze and interpret hidden information in the data and make predictions. Deploy Deep learning algorithm to train data and test models. We can develop mathematical models using large-scale dynamical systems and calibrate the models using Statistical tools, and Inverse problem and D’ noise techniques. 2. Assessment of the effectiveness of containment measures: There is an urgent need to conduct research on issues like optimal social distancing, the efficacy of drugs and Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 8 vaccines undergoing clinical trials. Is the theory of 2 meters social distant sacrosanct? Does weather affect it? On the other hand, does it vary from one territory to another? We need to answer some of the questions using modeling and optimization theory. 3. Cost/impact on travel or trade: Evaluate the economic impact of the Covid-19 regime on trade and tourism sectors in particular, and estimate the economic growth rates of nations. We need to come up with new economic models for optimal pricing of commodities like oil, airline tickets, and hotel accommodation in the Covid-19 regime. We need to develop impulsive models for large-scale employment that will definitely be useful under the Covid-19 scenario. 4. The risk associated with the transmission of the disease: We need to use models to measure the risks associated with containment measures. Measure the risk in drug and vaccine administrations. The occupational and entrepreneurial risk associated with the disease needs to be quantified. 5. Disease epidemiology: New mathematical models and simulation tools should evolve from generic ones to study the spread of the Covid-19 disease considering its impulsive nature of the disease. 6. Modeling clinical specialty of the pandemic. New models are needed to study the pathology of Covid-19, effective drug and vaccine administrations. Research areas are on viral immune response, cytokine analysis, vaccines, biomarkers, and therapeutics. More research on bioengineering is very essential for optimal utilization of medical equipment such as ventilators and production of nose mast using 3D printers etc. Develop a simulation for fabrication of equipment for environmental hygiene and Nanomedicine. 7. In-depth analysis on the effect of Covid-19 on population groups. Make a critical study on the demographic impacts of the disease on nations according to age groups for sustainability development. Conclusion Covid-19 has infringed socio-economic problems on many nations. This article is on the global overview of the disease and modeling procedures to contain the disease. We consider the major challenges the pandemic has brought to mankind and how mathematical modeling and simulation could offer a pathway to finding solutions to the Academia Letters, April 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Benjamin Oyelami, boyelami2000@yahoo.com Citation: Oyelami, B. (2021). Spotlight on Covid-19 using Mathematical Modeling and Simulation. Academia Letters, Article 914. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL914. 9 pandemic. The results from the simulation of covid-19 models should guild drugs/vaccines developer, political and economic experts in decision taking under the covid-19 regime. References 1. Adam J Kucharski, Timothy W Russell, Charlie Diamond, Yang Liu, John Edmunds, Sebastian Funk, Rosalind M Eggo, Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID19: a mathematical modeling study.Lancet Infect Dis 2020;20: 553–558. 2. Alessandro settle & Shane Crotty Pre-existing immunity to Sar-Cov-2. 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