lancet-header

Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals identify content of interest prior to publication. Authors have opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision making and should not be presented to a lay audience without highlighting that they are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed. For more information on this collaboration, see the comments published in The Lancet about the trial period, and our decision to make this a permanent offering, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact preprints@lancet.com.

Association between Exposure to PM 2·5 and the Date-Based Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 in Guangzhou, China: A Retrospective Cohort Study

35 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2021

See all articles by Mao Wang

Mao Wang

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) - Department of Occupational and Environmental Health

Qinlong Jing

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Ai-Li Jiang

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU)

Meng Meng Ma

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Bi-Ling Wen

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU)

Wen Jun Huang

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU)

Wen Hua Ling

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) - Department of Nutrition

Zhicong Yang

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Zhou-Bin Zhang

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention

More...

Abstract

Background: There is no information on the association between exposure to fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2·5 μm or less (PM2·5) and the date-based secondary attack rate (DBSAR) of COVID-19.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study performed in Guangzhou, China, based on hourly concentration data of PM>sub>2·5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO from January 1, 2020 to February 15, 2020 from approximately 1,500 monitoring stations in China and the addresses of the participants, we used the Kriging interpolation method to calculate the moving average (MA) concentrations of the pollutants over the previous 1 to 14 days before symptom onset of secondary cases. After simultaneously adjusting for a series of key covariates, we evaluated the dose-response relationship between PM2·5 and DBSAR using a generalized linear mixed model.

Findings: DBSAR fluctuated from 2·12% on January 17 to 6·61% on February 13. The significantly positive relationship between PM2·5 exposure and DBSAR at prior 1 to 14 MA days. For example, the dose-response relationship was as follows, for every 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM2·5, DBSAR increased by 2·77% (95% CI: 1·32% to 4·22%; P < 0·001) at prior 1 MA day and 5·82% (95% CI: 4·00% to 7·65%; P < 0·0001) at prior 14 MA days. The effect of PM2·5 exposure in DBSAR significantly differed by age and exposure time.

Interpretation: There was a strong nonlinear dose-response relationship between exposure to PM2·5 and DBSAR at prior 1 to 14 MA days, which provide significant evidence and suggests that transmission by aerosol is possible.

Funding Statement: This study was supported by grants from the Health Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou (20191A01158).

Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the ethics committee of the Guangzhou CDC (Guangzhou, China). Analyses involving personally identifiable data were conducted at the Guangzhou CDC. The analyses were performed with anonymized data.

Suggested Citation

Wang, Mao and Jing, Qinlong and Jiang, Ai-Li and Ma, Meng Meng and Wen, Bi-Ling and Huang, Wen Jun and Ling, Wen Hua and Yang, Zhicong and Zhang, Zhou-Bin, Association between Exposure to PM 2·5 and the Date-Based Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 in Guangzhou, China: A Retrospective Cohort Study. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3859291 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3859291

Mao Wang

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) - Department of Occupational and Environmental Health

Guangzhou
China

Qinlong Jing

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( email )

Dexing 1st Cross Street
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510440
China

Ai-Li Jiang

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) ( email )

135, Xingang Xi Road
Haizhu District
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275
China

Meng Meng Ma

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Dexing 1st Cross Street
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510440
China

Bi-Ling Wen

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) ( email )

135, Xingang Xi Road
Haizhu District
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275
China

Wen Jun Huang

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) ( email )

135, Xingang Xi Road
Haizhu District
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275
China

Wen Hua Ling (Contact Author)

Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) - Department of Nutrition ( email )

74 Zhongshan Road II
Guangzhou, 510080
China

Zhicong Yang

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( email )

No.1 Qide Road
Baiyun District
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510440
China

Zhou-Bin Zhang

Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( email )

No.1 Qide Road
Baiyun District
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510440
China

Click here to go to TheLancet.com

Paper statistics

Downloads
17
Abstract Views
341
PlumX Metrics