Malaysian Journal of Mathematical Sciences, September 2022, Vol. 16, No. 3
A Fractional Order SITR Model for Forecasting of Transmission of COVID-19: Sensitivity Statistical Analysis
Al-Zahrani, S. M., Elsmih, F. E. I., Al-Zahrani, K. S., and Saber, S.
Corresponding Email: sayedkay@yahoo.com
Received date: 28 January 2022
Accepted date: 25 April 2022
Abstract:
In this work, we investigate the effects of the contact rate between people on the covid-19 virus
transmission through a susceptible-infected-treatment-recovered (SITR) fractional mathematical
model. Several strategies are introduced, and the development methodology is constructed
up in various cases based on the rate of individual contact, due to confinement and social distancing
rules, which can be useful in reducing infection. The existence and uniqueness of the
proposed model solution are established, as well as the basic reproduction number. The basic
reproduction number has been used to control the dynamics of the fractional SITR model completely,
which determines whether or not the infection is extinguished. The global stability of
the infection-free balance and endemic equilibrium point of the proposed model has been fully
established using the Lyapunov-LaSalle type theorem. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is carried
out to find out which parameter is the most dominant to affect the disease’s endemicity and
to see how changes in parameters affect Covid-19’s beginning disease transmission. The fractional
Adams-Bashforth method is used to compute an iterative solution to the model. Finally,
using the model parameter values to explain the importance of the arbitrary fractional-order
derivative, the numerical results using MATLAB are presented.
Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical model; endemic-equilibrium; stability analysis
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