A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis

36 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2022

See all articles by Allan Dizioli

Allan Dizioli

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Aneta Radzikowski

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Daniel Greenwood

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: August 2021

Abstract

This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.

Keywords: COVID-19, epidemiology modelling, vaccines impact, virus variants and testing, vaccine hesitancy, vaccination data, Google mobility, virus variant, vaccination assumption, COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Aging, Global

JEL Classification: E17, D62, I12, J22, J10, I10, G10, J14

Suggested Citation

Dizioli, Allan and Radzikowski, Aneta and Greenwood, Daniel, A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis (August 2021). IMF Working Paper No. 2021/226, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4026427

Allan Dizioli (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Aneta Radzikowski

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Daniel Greenwood

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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