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Maximising Climate and Employment Benefits From COVID-19 Recovery Packages: A Multi-Model Assessment of Optimal Clean Technology Portfolios

18 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2022 Publication Status: Published

See all articles by Dirk-Jan Van de Ven

Dirk-Jan Van de Ven

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

Alexandros Nikas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Konstantinos Koasidis

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Aikaterini Forouli

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Gabriele Cassetti

E4SMA

Alessandro Chiodi

E4SMA

Maurizio Gargiulo

E4SMA

Sara Giarola

Imperial College London - Department of Chemical Engineering

Alex Koberle

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment

Themistoklis Koutsellis

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Shivika Mittal

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment

Sigit Perdana

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - LEURE Laboratory

Marc Vielle

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - LEURE Laboratory

Georgios Xexakis

HOLISTIC P.C.

Haris Doukas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Ajay Gambhir

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment

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Abstract

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts, scientists and policymakers alike have been advocating for green recovery packages focusing on clean energy technologies, to align economic recovery with climate change mitigation. In this study, we use three energy-economy models combined with portfolio analysis to estimate the emissions and employment benefits of a potential allocation of announced recovery packages towards clean energy projects, in six major emitting regions: Canada, China, EU, India, Japan, and USA. Despite trade-offs and regional differences, we find potential technology portfolios that both reduce emissions and increase employment across all regions and models. Solar PV is the dominant technology for achieving both emissions cuts and employment gains in most countries, while optimal packages also include funds for other low-carbon technologies. The selected packages significantly contribute to achieving NDC objectives and reducing pandemic-driven unemployment in the EU, China, and Canada. In USA and India, the proposed packages are too small to make a significant contribution. We find strong model structure-driven differences in outcomes, confirming the relevance of applying diverse models to avoid false precision in outcomes.

Keywords: COVID-19 recovery, clean energy technology, climate policy, green jobs, portfolio analysis

Suggested Citation

Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan and Nikas, Alexandros and Koasidis, Konstantinos and Forouli, Aikaterini and Cassetti, Gabriele and Chiodi, Alessandro and Gargiulo, Maurizio and Giarola, Sara and Koberle, Alexandre and Koutsellis, Themistoklis and Mittal, Shivika and Perdana, Sigit and Vielle, Marc and Xexakis, Georgios and Doukas, Haris and Gambhir, Ajay, Maximising Climate and Employment Benefits From COVID-19 Recovery Packages: A Multi-Model Assessment of Optimal Clean Technology Portfolios. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4030043 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4030043
This version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed.

Dirk-Jan Van de Ven (Contact Author)

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) ( email )

Gran Vía 35-2
Bilbao, Vizcaya 48009
Spain

Alexandros Nikas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Konstantinos Koasidis

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Aikaterini Forouli

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Gabriele Cassetti

E4SMA ( email )

Torino
Italy

Alessandro Chiodi

E4SMA ( email )

Torino
Italy

Maurizio Gargiulo

E4SMA ( email )

Torino
Italy

Sara Giarola

Imperial College London - Department of Chemical Engineering ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Alexandre Koberle

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment ( email )

South Kensington
United Kingdom

Themistoklis Koutsellis

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Shivika Mittal

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment ( email )

South Kensington
United Kingdom

Sigit Perdana

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - LEURE Laboratory ( email )

Switzerland

Marc Vielle

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - LEURE Laboratory ( email )

Switzerland

Georgios Xexakis

HOLISTIC P.C. ( email )

Mesogeion Avenue 507
Athens
Greece

Haris Doukas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Ajay Gambhir

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment ( email )

South Kensington
United Kingdom