Evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak caused by temporal contact-increase in South Korea

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.036Get rights and content
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Highlights

  • Widespread COVID-19 infection occurred in South Korea after February 18 because of the mass infections in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus.

  • The mean transmission rate has increased by approximately 20 times since the mass infections from the 31 st confirmed patient occurred on February 9.

  • Voluntary prevention actions were fairly implemented, and, consequently, the effective reproduction number on February 28 has remained below unity after identifying the 31 st confirmed patient on February 18.

  • We aim for the voluntary participation by citizens in active prevention activities until vaccines or treatments are developed in the countries that are presently suffering from COVID-19.

Abstract

Objectives

On March 15, 2020, 61.3% of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in South Korea are associated with the worship service that was organized on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu. We aim to evaluate the effects of mass infection in South Korea and assess the preventive control intervention.

Method

Using openly available data of daily cumulative confirmed cases and deaths, the basic and effective reproduction numbers was estimated using a modified susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered-type epidemic model.

Results

The basic reproduction number was estimated to be R0=1.77. The effective reproduction number increased approximately 20 times after the mass infections from the 31 st patient, which was confirmed on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, Daegu. However, the effective reproduction number decreased to less than unity after February 28 owing to the implementation of high-level preventive control interventions in South Korea, coupled with voluntary prevention actions by citizens.

Conclusion

Preventive action and control intervention were successfully established in South Korea.

Keywords

2019 novel coronavirus disease
SARS-CoV-2
Epidemic model
Effective reproduction number

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