The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Phishing Frequency and Content. The Impact of Routine Activities Theory and a Rational Choice Model of Crime

34 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2023

See all articles by Jip Laan

Jip Laan

University of Twente

Marianne Junger

University of Twente

Abhishta Abhishta

University of Twente

Mattijs Jonker

University of Twente

Date Written: January 11, 2023

Abstract

Disasters often lead to mild to strong increases in offline crime. The recent COVID-19 pandemic also changed the crime landscape but in very different ways. The social restrictions led to moderate to strong decreases in offline crime. The present study describes the quantitative development of phishing and the narratives used by attackers to entice their victims. To that end, Anti-Phishing Working Group (APWG) data are used.

Results show a modest increase in the number of phishing e-mails sent during the COVID-19 pandemic and a strong increase in phishing since June 2020 that is continuing to date. While offline crime decreased during restrictions and increased again after restrictions were lifted, phishing kept increasing to date. Likewise, the proportion of phishing e-mails with attachments also increased, suggesting an increase in the spread of malware. The narratives used in phishing after the outbreak of the pandemic also changed. Phishing messages more often referred to Corona, medical and protective equipment, financial issues and terms related to online shopping. At the same time, phishing e-mails related to dating, beauty, weight loss or diet declined.
Routine Activities Theory and the rational choice model of crime are proposed to explain the findings.

Keywords: Cybercrime, Phishing, Pandemic, Corona, Natural Langauge Processing, Cyber criminals, Routine Active Theory, RAT, Rational Choice Model, crime, APWG

Suggested Citation

Laan, Jip and Junger, Marianne and Abhishta, Abhishta and Jonker, Mattijs, The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Phishing Frequency and Content. The Impact of Routine Activities Theory and a Rational Choice Model of Crime (January 11, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4322333 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4322333

Jip Laan (Contact Author)

University of Twente

Marianne Junger

University of Twente ( email )

Postbus 217
Twente
Netherlands

Abhishta Abhishta

University of Twente ( email )

Mattijs Jonker

University of Twente

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