The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Phishing Frequency and Content. The Impact of Routine Activities Theory and a Rational Choice Model of Crime
34 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2023
Date Written: January 11, 2023
Abstract
Disasters often lead to mild to strong increases in offline crime. The recent COVID-19 pandemic also changed the crime landscape but in very different ways. The social restrictions led to moderate to strong decreases in offline crime. The present study describes the quantitative development of phishing and the narratives used by attackers to entice their victims. To that end, Anti-Phishing Working Group (APWG) data are used.
Results show a modest increase in the number of phishing e-mails sent during the COVID-19 pandemic and a strong increase in phishing since June 2020 that is continuing to date. While offline crime decreased during restrictions and increased again after restrictions were lifted, phishing kept increasing to date. Likewise, the proportion of phishing e-mails with attachments also increased, suggesting an increase in the spread of malware. The narratives used in phishing after the outbreak of the pandemic also changed. Phishing messages more often referred to Corona, medical and protective equipment, financial issues and terms related to online shopping. At the same time, phishing e-mails related to dating, beauty, weight loss or diet declined.
Routine Activities Theory and the rational choice model of crime are proposed to explain the findings.
Keywords: Cybercrime, Phishing, Pandemic, Corona, Natural Langauge Processing, Cyber criminals, Routine Active Theory, RAT, Rational Choice Model, crime, APWG
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