Managing the COVID-19 pandemic: does social infrastructure matter? Evidence from India

The COVID-19 pandemic educed extraordinary policy responses globally, including in India, to flatten the infection-growth curve. The trajectories of infections, recovery, and deaths vastly differed across Indian states. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether persistent investments by states in critical social sectors, such as health and education, explain their preparedness and hence better management of the pandemic.

This study uses secondary data on the number of infected, recovered and deceased due to COVID-19, along with data on population and income across 302 districts in 11 major states in India. Data on health and education indices are collected at the state-level. Linear regression models that also control for heteroskedasticity are applied.

This study finds that higher investments in health care and education reduce the propensity of the infection spread. Further, states with persistent investments in health care and education exhibit a higher rate of recovery. This study also finds that death rates are significantly lower in states with higher investments in education.

The findings support the conjecture that states that have consistently invested in social sectors benefited from the associated positive externalities during the crisis that helped them manage the pandemic better.

This study will help policymakers understand the underlying social forces critical to the success in the fight against pandemics. Apart from improving preparedness for future pandemics, the evidence provided in the paper may help give better direction and purpose to tax-financed public spending in states where social sector development has hitherto received low priority.