A System of Differential Equations Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Pampanga

17 Pages Posted: 26 Sep 2022

See all articles by Karla S. Mallari

Karla S. Mallari

Pampanga State Agricultural University

Aldrin Mendoza

Pampanga State Agricultural University

Date Written: September 7, 2022

Abstract

The main objective of the study was to develop and present a system of differential equations modeling COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the province of Pampanga. We modeled COVID-19 using the given observed data. An SIRD model was developed, which was based on the SIR model developed by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927. An analytical and numerical method were used in this model analysis. I(t) was solved analytically followed by solving the parameters of the model using optimization process in the Excel solver. Then the numerical solution for dS/dt, dR/dt and dD/dt was solved using Runge-Kutta method in Scilab 6.1.1.Based on the developed model, the transmission rate (r), removal rate (recovery (λ) and death rate (ω)), proportion of the population using face mask (θ) and the efficacy of face mask (ε) were significant factors driving the rise of cases.

Note:
Funding Information: The authors did not receive support from any organization in conducting this study.

Conflict of Interests: K.S. Mallari is affiliated with the Department of Mathematics, College of Arts & Sciences, Pampanga State Agricultural University. A. P. Mendoza is currently employed as an Associate Professor V at the Department of Mathematics, College of Arts & Sciences, Pampanga State Agricultural University.

Keywords: COVID-19, Runge-Kutta method, SIR model, modelling, SIRD

JEL Classification: C39

Suggested Citation

Mallari, Karla S. and Mendoza, Aldrin, A System of Differential Equations Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Pampanga (September 7, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4212122 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4212122

Karla S. Mallari

Pampanga State Agricultural University

Aldrin Mendoza (Contact Author)

Pampanga State Agricultural University ( email )

PAC, Magalang, Pampanga
Magalang, Pampanga 2011
Philippines

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