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Unfolding of a COVID-19 Transmission Wave in a Cluster of Highly Vulnerable Individuals in Rio De Janeiro – a Spatial Populational-Based Serosurvey

31 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2022

See all articles by Lara E. Coelho

Lara E. Coelho

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Paula Mendes Luz

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Débora Castanheira Pires

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Emília M. Jalil

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Hugo Perazzo

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Thiago Silva Torres

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Sandra Wagner Cardoso

Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fiocruz - Lab. De Pesquisa Clinica DST/AIDS; Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Eduardo Mesquita Peixoto

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Sandro Nazer

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ

Eduardo Massad

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Mariangela Freitas Silveira

Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel) - Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology

Fernando C. Barros

Universidade Católica de Pelotas; Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel)

Ana Tereza Ribeiro Vasconcelos

Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica (LNCC)

Carlos Alberto Moraes Costa

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública

Rodrigo Teixeira Amancio

Hospital do Servidor Público Estadual -São Paulo

Daniel Antunes Maciel Villela

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Tiago Pereira

University of São Paulo (USP)

Guilherme T. Goedert

Università degli Studi di Macerata - Università degli Studi di Macerata, Students

Cleber Vinicius Brito Santos

Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) - Instituto de Medicina Social

Nadia Cristina Pinheiro Rodrigues

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública

Beatriz Grinsztejn

Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fiocruz - Lab. De Pesquisa Clinica DST/AIDS

Valdiléa G. Veloso

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases (INI)

Claudio Jose Struchiner

Fundação Getulio Vargas

More...

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 serosurveys allow monitoring the level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and support data-driven decisions, which are particularly useful in low-income settings with limited testing capacity and unequal COVID-19 burden. We estimated the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a large favela complexes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Methods: A population-based panel study was conducted in Complexo de Manguinhos (16 favelas ) with a probabilistic sampling of participants aged ≥1 year. Participants answered a structured interview and provided blood samples for serology (anti-S IgG antibodies). Multilevel regression models (with random intercepts to account for participants spatial clustering) were used to assess factors associated with reactive serology. Secondary analyses estimated the seroprevalence using an additional anti-N IgG assay.

Findings: 4,033 participants were included (from Sep/2020 toFeb/2021, 22 epidemic weeks), the median age was 39·8 years (IQR:21·8-57·7), 61% were female, 41% were mixed-race ( Pardo ) and 23% Black. Overall prevalence was 49·0% (95%CI:46·8%-51·2%) which varied across favelas (from 68·3% to 31·4%). Seroprevalence increased after epidemic week 15, concurrently with the upsurge of the Gamma (P1) variant in Rio de Janeiro. Lower prevalence estimates were found when using anti-N IgG assay across all age groups.

Interpretation: We found a significantly higher prevalence of anti-S IgG antibodies than initially anticipated. Albeit high levels of seroprevalence levels, we documented the unfolding of a new transmission wave. Our results highlight the need for cautious interpretation of serosurveys estimates given the heterogeneity of exposure in communities, loss of immunological biomarkers, serological antigen target, and variant-specific test affinity.

Funding: TST acknowledge funding from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) and Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ). GTG has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 765048 and CNPq funding 403679/2020-6.

Declaration of Interest: All authors declare no competing interests.

Ethical Approval: Local ethics committees approved the study (Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas (INI)/Fiocruz, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP)/Fiocruz, and Instituto
Oswaldo Cruz (IOC)/Fiocruz).

Keywords: COVID-19, serosurveys, social inequity, antibodies, Brazil

Suggested Citation

Coelho, Lara E. and Luz, Paula Mendes and Pires, Débora Castanheira and Jalil, Emília M. and Perazzo, Hugo and Torres, Thiago Silva and Cardoso, Sandra Wagner and Peixoto, Eduardo Mesquita and Nazer, Sandro and Massad, Eduardo and Silveira, Mariangela Freitas and Barros, Fernando C. and Vasconcelos, Ana Tereza Ribeiro and Costa, Carlos Alberto Moraes and Amancio, Rodrigo Teixeira and Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel and Pereira, Tiago and Goedert, Guilherme T. and Santos, Cleber Vinicius Brito and Rodrigues, Nadia Cristina Pinheiro and Grinsztejn, Beatriz and Veloso, Valdiléa G. and Struchiner, Claudio Jose, Unfolding of a COVID-19 Transmission Wave in a Cluster of Highly Vulnerable Individuals in Rio De Janeiro – a Spatial Populational-Based Serosurvey. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4076904 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4076904

Lara E. Coelho (Contact Author)

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Paula Mendes Luz

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Débora Castanheira Pires

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Emília M. Jalil

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Hugo Perazzo

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Thiago Silva Torres

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Sandra Wagner Cardoso

Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fiocruz - Lab. De Pesquisa Clinica DST/AIDS ( email )

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Eduardo Mesquita Peixoto

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Sandro Nazer

Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas FIOCRUZ ( email )

Eduardo Massad

Fundação Getulio Vargas ( email )

Mariangela Freitas Silveira

Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel) - Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology

Brazil

Fernando C. Barros

Universidade Católica de Pelotas ( email )

Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel) ( email )

Ana Tereza Ribeiro Vasconcelos

Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica (LNCC) ( email )

Av. Getúlio Vargas, 333
Petrópolis, 25651-075
Brazil

Carlos Alberto Moraes Costa

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública ( email )

Brazil

Rodrigo Teixeira Amancio

Hospital do Servidor Público Estadual -São Paulo ( email )

Rua Pedro de Toledo 1,800. Vila Clementino
SAO PAULO
Brazil

Daniel Antunes Maciel Villela

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program ( email )

Tiago Pereira

University of São Paulo (USP) ( email )

Brazil

Guilherme T. Goedert

Università degli Studi di Macerata - Università degli Studi di Macerata, Students ( email )

V.le del Vignola 73
Macerata 62100, MC
United States

Cleber Vinicius Brito Santos

Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) - Instituto de Medicina Social ( email )

Rua São Francisco Xavier, 524
Maracanã
Rio de Janeiro, RJ
Brazil

Nadia Cristina Pinheiro Rodrigues

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública ( email )

Brazil

Beatriz Grinsztejn

Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fiocruz - Lab. De Pesquisa Clinica DST/AIDS ( email )

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Valdiléa G. Veloso

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases (INI) ( email )

Av. Brasil 4365
Rio de Janeiro, 21040-360
Brazil

Claudio Jose Struchiner

Fundação Getulio Vargas ( email )

Brazil