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Demand or supply shock during the COVID-19 crisis: empirical evidence from public firms in Indonesia

Timothy Maholi Sinamo (Department of Management, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia)
Dewi Hanggraeni (Department of Management, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia)

Journal of Asia Business Studies

ISSN: 1558-7894

Article publication date: 19 August 2021

Issue publication date: 18 August 2022

640

Abstract

Purpose

In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm’s access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm’s capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

The change in firms’ capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms’ investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory.

Findings

The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms’ capital expenditure.

Originality/value

This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

Citation

Sinamo, T.M. and Hanggraeni, D. (2022), "Demand or supply shock during the COVID-19 crisis: empirical evidence from public firms in Indonesia", Journal of Asia Business Studies, Vol. 16 No. 5, pp. 747-767. https://doi.org/10.1108/JABS-01-2021-0030

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited

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