Effects of Short-Term Air Pollution Exposure on U.S. COVID-19 Mortality

20 Pages Posted: 14 Jan 2022 Last revised: 5 May 2022

See all articles by Ruohao Zhang

Ruohao Zhang

Pennsylvania State University

Jeff Whittle

Clement J. Zablocki Medical Center - Department of Medicine

Vladimir A. Atanasov

William and Mary - Raymond A. Mason School of Business

John Meurer

Medical College of Wisconsin

Paula Natalia Barreto Parra

Northwestern University

Bernard S. Black

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law

Date Written: January 11, 2022

Abstract

Importance
Prior studies have shown that long-term exposure to air pollution predicts higher COVID-19 mortality, but there is limited evidence on the effect of short-term fluctuations in air pollution levels.

Objective
To determine whether short-term changes in county air-pollution levels predict COVID-19 mortality in the U.S.

Design
We use county-level data regarding COVID-19 deaths, air pollution, temperature, precipitation, and lagged SARS-CoV2 infection and vaccination rates, with county and date fixed effects, to assess whether, and for how long, variation in local air pollution predicts COVID-19 mortality rates.

Setting
We use county-by-day data on COVID-19 deaths, infections, and vaccination rates, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) measure of daily air pollution from NASA MODIS satellite data, and Oregon State University PRISM database on daily precipitation and temperature, over March 2020 through August 2021.

Participants
2,942 U.S. Counties with data on COVID-19 mortality and air pollution levels, after interpolation for days with missing pollution data.

Exposures
Daily air pollution levels; lagged daily COVID-19 infection and vaccination rates.

Main Outcomes and Measurements
County-level COVID-19 deaths measured as the natural log of (7-day moving average daily deaths +1).

Results
Higher AOD levels predict modestly higher COVID-19 mortality for the next 2-3 weeks, controlling for local lagged infections, lagged vaccination rates, temperature, and precipitation. A one-standard-deviation increase in AOD over the previous 14 days predicts 5.9% higher COVID-19 mortality.

Conclusion and Relevance
The evidence in this study on the association between higher near-term air pollution and COVID-19 mortality. suggests that persons who are infected with or at risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection should limit their exposure to air pollution. Paying greater attention to indoor ventilation and air filtering, including in hospitals, may reduce COVID-19 deaths.

Note:
Funding: The project described was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences and Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health, Award Number UL1TR001436.

Declaration of Interests: The authors have no competing interests.

Keywords: air pollution and mortality; COVID-19

Suggested Citation

Zhang, Ruohao and Whittle, Jeffrey and Atanasov, Vladimir A. and Meurer, John and Barreto Parra, Paula Natalia and Black, Bernard S., Effects of Short-Term Air Pollution Exposure on U.S. COVID-19 Mortality (January 11, 2022). Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper No. 22-03, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4006616 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4006616

Ruohao Zhang (Contact Author)

Pennsylvania State University ( email )

University Park, PA 16802-3306
United States

Jeffrey Whittle

Clement J. Zablocki Medical Center - Department of Medicine ( email )

5000 W. National Ave.
Milwaukee, WI 53295
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.mcw.edu/display/router.asp?DocID=10377

Vladimir A. Atanasov

William and Mary - Raymond A. Mason School of Business ( email )

P.O. Box 8795
Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795
United States

John Meurer

Medical College of Wisconsin ( email )

United States
4145100375 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.mcw.edu/departments/institute-for-health-and-equity/people/john-meurer-md-mba

Paula Natalia Barreto Parra

Northwestern University ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

Bernard S. Black

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law ( email )

375 E. Chicago Ave
Chicago, IL 60611
United States
312-503-2784 (Phone)

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